China continues to intensify its military threats against Taiwan and deploys medium-range ballistic missile systems on its southeastern coast to target Taiwan. Chinese leader Xi Jinping has repeatedly tried to change the status quo across the Taiwan Strait and has repeatedly declared that he will not give up sending troops to invade Taiwan. Regarding the recent failure of China’s ally Iran’s large-scale air strikes against Israel, some foreign defense experts warned that China will learn lessons from it and readjust its plan to seize Taiwan with military force.
According to the British “Daily Telegraph” (The Daily Telegraph), China and Iran have profound military cooperation experience. Now the Beijing authorities will try every means to break through the advanced technology and combat capabilities that have allowed almost all Iranian drones and missiles to be intercepted. of allied countries. If China were to launch a formal attack on Taiwan, a country with a population of 23.5 million, launching a large number of drones and missiles would be an important step in attacking Taiwan.
Rupert Hammond-Chambers, president of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Association, said: “They will study what happened, not just how Iran attacked, but how we responded, how Israel and the coalition supporting Israel responded.” Han Rubo said that the Israeli camp’s rate of destroying drones and missiles is extremely high and almost perfect, which shows that the United States and its allies have the technology to significantly weaken attacks.
China has invested hundreds of billions of dollars to enhance the combat capabilities of the People’s Liberation Army, including rapidly expanding its weapons arsenal, such as thousands of short-range to intercontinental ballistic missiles and an estimated 500 operational nuclear warheads, but Chinese President Xi Jinping Recent purges at the top of the Strategic Rocket Forces, the unit responsible for the weapons depot, have raised questions about whether widespread corruption could undermine the People’s Liberation Army’s modernization efforts and China’s war readiness.
Taiwan is on the front line of pressure from China to expand its military and faces a huge threat from medium-range ballistic missile systems along China’s southeastern coast. Han Rubo emphasized that Taiwan’s national defense capabilities are making progress in the right direction, including investing in the US-made “Patriot III” (PAC-3) missile defense system and its own missile program, and will soon have the largest F-12 missile in the region. -16 fighter fleet.
Whether Taiwan can rely on its allies for assistance like Israel does will be a major factor in conflicts across the Taiwan Strait. Han Rubo asked: “Jordan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Israel have joined forces to resist Iran’s attack. In North Asia, how prepared are we to do this?” Han Rubo advocated that Washington’s Taiwan policy should start from “strategic ambiguity” ( strategic ambiguity) to “strategic clarity” to increase the power of intimidation.
Japan is currently strengthening its own F-35 fighter fleet; and the United States, as Taiwan’s largest arms supplier, has also deployed a large number of troops around Taiwan. Mei Fuxing, director of the New York-based Taiwan Security Analysis Center, pointed out that China may have learned from Iran’s failed attack that it is feasible to intercept drones and cruise missiles launched from long distances. The situation gives the enemy ample time to react.
Mei Fuxing continued that if the Chinese leadership believed that its own missiles and drones were of better quality, more accurate, and better able to penetrate enemy air defenses, they might not be too worried; and the missiles used by China to attack Taiwan were The required flight distance is shorter, giving less reaction time. Experts pointed out that China’s arsenal includes Dongfeng-17 hypersonic ballistic missiles, which can fly to Taiwan in only 6 to 8 minutes. Shorter range requirements reduce costs and allow more missiles to be deployed.
However, Taiwan can also learn a lesson from Israel’s successful defense model. Israel combines a powerful integrated air and missile defense system (IAMDS), appropriate detection, and integrated command and control with assistance from allies. Mei Fuxing also said that Taiwan “already has many of these key elements” but also needs to improve its battle management system and find ways to ensure assistance from the United States and other regional partners.
PLA land-based DF-41 missile.Picture: Reprinted from Guoping Vision
