China may attack Taiwan in 2027 Yu Maochun: Taiwan’s allies and democratic technological forces can check and balance (photo) Infringement | Current Affairs |

Yu Maochun, director of the China Center at the Hudson Institute, an American think tank, said that although China has the ability to attack Taiwan in 2027, Taiwan’s allies and democratic technological forces can check and balance it. (Radio Free Asia)
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[Watch China, April 25, 2024]In recent years, many U.S. military and intelligence officials have pointed out that China will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. The timetable for China’s attack on Taiwan has become a hot topic. Yu Maochun, director of the China Center of the American think tank Hudson Institute, analyzed the possibility of China’s armed attack on Taiwan from the perspective of China’s motivations, capabilities, opportunities and challenges in the “China Insider” podcast hosted by him.
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Regarding the possibility of China invading Taiwan, Yu Maochun bluntly stated in the program that this is a difficult topic. It is not that he is unwilling to talk about it, but that it involves his access to materials and information from the US government. However, he analyzed from a personal point of view, “This cannot be simply summarized as big or small, or yes or no. It involves four very complex factors that check and balance each other.”

First, does China have a strategy to invade Taiwan? Yu Maochun pointed out that the 1972 Shanghai communiqué clearly stated that it wanted to “liberate Taiwan.” Now in the communiqué on the website of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China, the words “liberating Taiwan” are almost blocked and only appear in the last few sentences. Because China hides its ambitions, it is renamed “unification of the motherland”. “‘Reunification’ and ‘liberation’ both have the same purpose, so the Chinese Communist Party has always had strategic intentions towards Taiwan.”

Secondly, does China have the capability to attack Taiwan? He said that in recent years, China has continuously emphasized “rising in the east and falling in the west”, and has also vigorously developed its military, displaying and harassing Taiwan every day, so China still has a certain degree of confidence that it has the ability to attack Taiwan.

China has the motivation and ability to invade Taiwan, but the United States and its allies provide checks and balances

“From the perspective of motivation and capabilities, the possibility of China’s armed attack on Taiwan is very high,” Yu Maochun continued. However, it is also affected by two factors, one is opportunity and the other is cost. “In terms of these two factors, the possibility of China’s invasion of Taiwan is greatly reduced. Because the CCP must wait for the best opportunity to minimize the cost of attacking Taiwan.”

From the perspective of “opportunities”, Yu Maochun believes that this is not something that the CCP can control, but is controlled by the outside.

He suggested that the first step is to strengthen U.S.-Taiwan relations and the Taiwan Relations Act so that the United States can become the most powerful balancing force to prevent the CCP from invading Taiwan. In addition, U.S. allies, such as NATO, have realized that peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait have a certain impact, and the Japanese government has realized that “if something happens to Taiwan, it means something happens to Japan.” The Australian government also holds a similar view. The South Korean president also said that the Taiwan issue, like the peninsula issue, is not a regional issue, but a global issue. “This provides a great check and balance to China’s aggression against Taiwan, so that China now has no chance to invade Taiwan.”

Yu Maochun further explained that if the President of the United States declares that he will abandon his defense commitment to Taiwan, then China will have an opportunity to take advantage of it. The cost of its invasion of Taiwan will be small, and the possibility of invading Taiwan will be greater. “Ever since President Carter, successive U.S. presidents have never had any ambiguity in their stance on military intervention against the Chinese Communist Party’s armed attack on Taiwan.”

Taiwan’s democracy and science and technology can eliminate the opportunity for China to invade Taiwan

However, Yu Maochun also took this opportunity to tell the Taiwanese people that he also has many opportunities to eliminate China’s aggression against Taiwan. For example, the political ideas and political operations of the Taiwanese people have a great impact on the political security of mainland China. He said that many people in mainland China admire Taiwan’s freedom and democracy, but are unable to speak out due to the threat of repression from the authoritarian regime. It can be seen from Chinese social media that the Chinese people are concerned about everything that happens in Taiwan. Recently, a major earthquake with a magnitude of 7.2 occurred in Taiwan. CCTV actively reported on the disaster in all aspects, which in turn caused dissatisfaction among the Chinese people. Because there are more natural disasters in China, but the Chinese propaganda machine conceals them and does not report them.

“Taiwan’s people, society and even Taiwan’s government have not yet made full use of the Chinese government’s overbearing, aggressive, and weak nature of telling lies to influence the people on the mainland. The CCP is very afraid of its own people, and being the masters of the country is exactly Taiwan’s strength and can play a role. to serve as an example.”

In addition, another strength of Taiwan is science and technology, which can also impose very significant restrictions and blows on mainland China. He noticed that the Chinese government has made great efforts to support Taiwanese businessmen and invested considerable effort in united front work. However, the Taiwan government’s active response measures to Taiwanese businessmen are not enough. It must be more righteous and enhance national awareness.

Yu Maochun concluded: “The possibility of China invading Taiwan is very high, but there are also opportunities to counterattack and check and balance this possibility. The key lies in whether we can seize and exploit opportunities.”

How the United States and Taiwan can strengthen military cooperation

In the program, Yu Maochun also made suggestions on strengthening military cooperation between the United States and Taiwan. “The core point of the Taiwan Relations Act is its commitment to Taiwan’s defense. It mainly improves the Taiwanese people’s own defense capabilities, and the United States will fully assist it.”

He said that the “Taiwan Relations Act” clearly states that in order to prevent China from violating Taiwan, the United States must also strengthen the development of its own military capabilities to deal with China’s violations of Taiwan. Therefore, when Taiwan and the United States share a common will to develop military forces to prevent the Chinese Communist Party’s aggression, they should take joint actions. “Joint actions go far beyond just selling weapons to Taiwan. The joint combat capabilities and smooth communication between soldiers should be coordinated with each other and learn from each other’s strengths.”

Yu Maochun reminded that when the United States sells key weapons to Taiwan, it should pay more attention to “the concept and awareness of asymmetric warfare. It cannot compete with China on its strengths and ignore its shortcomings. There should be certain adjustments.”

Finally, he pointed out that the United States’ military doctrine and military command system are self-contained. It has been the main battlefield for decades and has limited experience in direct confrontation with China. Taiwan, on the other hand, understands the Chinese language and China’s strategic culture and tactical operations. The two militaries should communicate with each other and achieve a high degree of tacit understanding. In military terms, it is called interoperability, which means that the militaries can act with each other and cooperate with each other.

Source: Radio Free Asia

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