American scholar: The biggest risk between the United States and China is the South China Sea | Lianhe Zaobao

American scholars unanimously believe that the biggest risk between the United States and China is no longer Taiwan, but the South China Sea, and in the long run it is a technological dispute. Some American scholars pointed out that Southeast Asian countries are currently worried that China will become more aggressive in the South China Sea and that the United States will weaken its investment in the region. These are all driving up regional military expenditures.

Chinese and American scholars attended the fifth “Trilateral Exchange” closed-door forum organized by the S. S. Rajaratnam Institute of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore on Tuesday (April 23). They were interviewed by local media outside the venue.

When asked by Lianhe Zaobao, Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a right-wing think tank in Washington, said that a year ago he believed that the biggest problem in Sino-US relations was Taiwan. “(Taiwan President-elect) Lai Ching-te will take office in a month, and I thought this would be the biggest concern for everyone, but the South China Sea may be more of a concern at the moment.”

Cooper pointed out that as the situation at Ayunjin Reef (called Second Thomas Shoal in France and Second Thomas Shoal in China) continues to deteriorate, there is no sign that Beijing is willing to make concessions, and the United States will stand with the Philippines no matter what.

Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of defense projects at the Center for a New American Security, also pointed out that the current tensions in the South China Sea and Ayunjin Reef are the most serious challenges. The Philippines has responded to China’s actions such as firing water cannons at Philippine ships. I feel very angry, and the United States has made it clear that it will defend the Philippines, and the South China Sea faces a “huge risk” of escalation.

Cooper pointed out that China’s increasingly assertive behavior on Ayunjin Reef and the South China Sea has clearly caused concern in the region. Southeast Asian countries are also concerned about the weakening of the United States’ investment in the region and believe that more efforts must be made to defend themselves to defend their sovereignty, which means more defense spending.

He concluded that there has not yet been an arms race in Southeast Asia, but countries are increasingly paying attention to their own national defense and are trying to catch up after China has continued to increase its military spending for decades.

Cooper expects that if China does not adjust its foreign policy and Trump is still expected to win the White House again at the end of the year, the combination of the two factors may accelerate the growth of regional military budgets.

Zhou Bo, a researcher at Tsinghua University’s Center for Strategic and Security Studies, pointed out that although China’s military expenditure increased by about 7% year-on-year this year, it only accounted for about 1.5% of GDP in the past few decades, which is far lower than NATO standards. He believes that China’s defense budget remains roughly unchanged, showing that it remains calm in the region and does not engage in an arms race with any party.

Pettijohn believes that technological competition is a long-term challenge facing Sino-US relations. Crucial science and technology is not only the foundation of economic development and military power, but also prompts both sides to use various tools such as sanctions and even partial decoupling, and the repercussions will affect the world.

As U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visits China for three days this week, Chinese and American scholars assessed that high-level interactions between the two countries have become increasingly frequent over the past year, and the stabilization of bilateral relations has given the world a “big sigh of relief.” However, American scholars pointed out pessimistically that US-China relations are currently stabilizing in a difficult situation. The two countries still have differences on many issues. Recent high-level visits have not achieved any major results, nor have they made any substantial progress in improving relations.

Cooper believes that the United States and China are still “deeply frustrated” in the stability of their bilateral relations and accuse each other of viewing each other as competitors, but the two countries have not yet lost patience with high-level interactions.

Pettijohn also believes that although U.S.-China relations have improved slightly over the past year, there have been no major changes and the two countries may still refuse to discuss some issues with each other. She also pointed out that Beijing has a history of cutting off and refusing to communicate with the United States, and hoped that this would not happen again when bilateral relations have improved slightly.

Zhou Bo pointed out that the two giants China and the United States are increasingly interacting and discussing cooperation rather than taking action. “This makes everyone breathe a big sigh of relief.” He pointed out that it is “natural” that China and the United States have continued to emphasize their own views recently, and “this explains why (both sides) need this kind of communication.”

The first “Trilateral Exchange” closed-door forum will be held in 2021. This year is the second time it is held in a full entity format. Participants include scholars of different nationalities and Singaporean officials. The forum speakers are all Chinese and American scholars.

Wang Jingrong, executive vice chairman and roving ambassador of the S. S. S. S. S. International, revealed in an interview that against the backdrop of the resumption of high-level interactions between China and the United States, exchanges between scholars from the two countries are no longer so tense and indifferent compared to a year ago. He pointed out that the forum provides an opportunity for both parties to communicate candidly and listen to each other. He hopes that this will also allow Singapore to play an important role in international relations and diplomatic interactions related to survival and economy.

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