[Crossroads]Will Lai Xiao appear on the stage in the blue and white sequel?CCP election | Crossroads of the world | Taiwan election

[The Epoch Times, November 21, 2023]Hello everyone, I am Tang Hao. How are you today?

Today’s focus: Lai Xiaopei appears, Xiao Meiqin is the strongest deputy? Blue and white team up to break the game, is there still room for five clues? Ke Wenzhe will fight to the end, and Terry Gou will accompany him? Is the CCP’s two-pronged approach to the election more risky than a post-election explosion?

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Lai Ching-te officially announced that Hsiao Meiqin, the representative in the United States, will be his deputy. Lai Hsiaobei became the first group of officially registered candidates in this Taiwan election. Taiwan’s media and political circles also believe that Hsiao Meiqin is a strong deputy candidate. Who is Hsiao Meiqin? What’s unique about it? Why is the CCP so scrupulous about her and sanctioning her twice? She and Lai Qingde are running together, is Lai Xiao guaranteed to win?

In addition, the “Blue and White” collaboration between Ko Wenzhe and Hou Youyi is still dragging on. The two parties seem to have parted ways, but in fact they have laid many clues to lay out the sequel. Can the “Blue and White” collaboration finally take shape? Who is running the blue and white combination? In this episode, let’s talk to you.

Today we want to focus on Taiwan and talk about two news related to the general election:

News 1: Is Lai Xiao worthy of fighting against the Wolf? What risks lie ahead for Taiwan’s election?
News 2: Blue and white teaming up?Five clues and drama

News 1: Is Lai Xiao worthy of fighting against the Wolf? What risks lie ahead for Taiwan’s election?

With only about 50 days left before Taiwan’s general election, the Democratic Progressive Party officially announced the selection of Representative Xiao Meiqin as Lai Qingde’s deputy, and the “Lai Xiao Pei” was officially finalized. This combination is indeed beneficial to Lai Qingde, but is Lai Xiaopei sure to be elected? Not necessarily, and there is a more significant risk behind next year’s general election. how to say?

Let’s take a look at Lai Xiaopei first. Many friends know that Xiao Meiqin’s father is Taiwanese and her mother is American. However, she was born in Kobe, Japan, and grew up in the United States. She has a master’s degree in political science from Columbia University and has served in high-level positions in many international organizations. Therefore, she not only has excellent foreign language skills, but also has a rich international outlook and connections, and can grasp the pulse of the world structure.

Moreover, Xiao Meiqin has served as Taiwan’s representative to the United States in the past few years. She has performed very well in diplomatic work and is highly trusted by the United States. She also knows very well what kind of U.S.-China-Taiwan relations the United States needs. Therefore, in the past three years, U.S.-Taiwan relations have entered the best period in 50 years, which was the “golden age” of relations between the Republic of China and the United States since World War II.

Therefore, Xiao Meiqin’s appointment as deputy will indeed bring considerable bonus points to Lai Qingde in US-Taiwan relations and international affairs. If she is elected as vice president, it will be equivalent to a “highway” between the White House of the United States and the Presidential Office of Taiwan. “Bridge”, which will contribute to cooperation and trust between the United States and Taiwan, and will help further stabilize security across the Taiwan Strait.

In addition, Xiao Meiqin can speak Taiwanese and is very down-to-earth. She has also served as a legislator for several terms and has rich campaign experience in local politics. Therefore, Xiao Meiqin is not only relatively well-known to Taiwanese voters, but she also understands the grassroots What kind of life do voters want to live. This is different from other past vice presidents.

As we all know, the vice president is only a backup head of state and has no real power. Therefore, in the past Taiwan elections, many of the deputies selected by the president were government bureaucrats or scholars, and relatively few of them had actual backgrounds in grassroots elections. For example, former Vice Presidents Lien Chan and Chen Jianren are scholars, Xiao Wanchang is a government bureaucrat, etc.

In addition, Xiao Meiqin is a woman, which has a complementary effect on Lai Qingde and can win female votes; and she is good friends with Tsai Ing-wen and belongs to the so-called “British people”, and can help Lai win the support of the British faction and British fans in the party. Also, Xiao Meiqin is only 52 years old, which is relatively young in the political arena. In addition, she is a “cat lover”, so it will also have a bonus effect in winning young votes.

Moreover, Hsiao Meiqin has been very outstanding in diplomacy in the United States in the past few years. Not only has she won a lot of support and assistance for Taiwan, but she has also made Taiwan a strategic ally that the United States insists on assisting in defense. Therefore, the CCP is very scrupulous about Xiao Meiqin and publicly sanctioned her twice. However, Xiao Meiqin is proud of it and calls herself a “war cat.”

Well, regardless of party color, Xiao Meiqin is indeed the most competitive and electable vice presidential candidate on the table. After all, Gou Taiming’s partner, actress Lai Peixia, has only fought in the TV series. As for the Kuomintang and the People’s Party? Up to now, both sides are still vying to make each other their deputy.

Speaking of which, a friend asked me today, well, Lai Qingde has partnered with Xiao Meiqin, and Ke Wenzhe has fallen out with Hou Youyi. Does that mean that Lai Xiaopei can be properly elected? Is it impossible for the Chinese Communist Party to use agents to seize power in Taiwan? In my opinion, not necessarily.

1. Will Blue and White break the tie?It’s hard to say

First of all, is the combination of blue and white really broken? It’s hard to say yet.

Although Ko Wenzhe seemed to have “unilaterally broken the contract”, he not only said that he would run as a presidential candidate of the People’s Party to the end, but also went back to go to Terry Gou to study “statistics” together. Well, it should be about studying “computation”. However, I believe that the answer cannot be determined until the last moment of registration for the presidential election on the 24th, but we will have to wait and see the challenges and private negotiations between the blue and white parties in the next two days.

After all, both the Blue and White sides know very well that if they want to “take down the DPP” and defeat Lai Qingde, they must work together. Otherwise, both sides will have to bear considerable pressure from public dissatisfaction, and of course the pressure from criticism from the Chinese Communist Party on the other side. So now it seems that Ke P is looking for Guo Dong to start a family, but I don’t think it can be ruled out that this is just a means to put extreme pressure on the Kuomintang. On the one hand, he said “we broke up” to the outside world, and on the other hand, he Negotiate privately about who should give in. We will discuss this in depth later.

2. Poll: Blue-White cooperation poses challenges to Lai Xiaopei

Second, current polls from all parties show that if Blue and White cooperate, it will indeed pose a challenge to Lai Xiaopei.

We know that recently, because the Blue and White camp is trying to fight over who should be in charge and who should be deputy, many fake polls have appeared in the market, but some polls from relatively old brands can still be used as a reference.

For example, a poll by the Formosa Electronic Newspaper, which has been tracking the election for a long time, found that if Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe partnered, their combined poll support would beat Lai Qingde by 16 percentage points. Of course, polls are different from voting. There may be people in the polls who are posing as “Hou fans” or “Ke fans”. Moreover, once Blue and White cooperate, both parties may offend some voters and lose their votes. Therefore, the gap between Blue and White Cooperation and Lai Qingde may not be as big as 16%, but it will indeed pose greater pressure and challenges to Lai.

Looking at a new poll of Lai Xiaopei, the “Mirror News” poll found that if it is Ke Houpei, the support is 46.6%, which is significantly higher than Lai Xiaopei’s 33.1%; but if it is Hou Kepei, the support is 46.6%. It was 46.5%, which was also better than Lai Xiaopei’s 34.9%.

In other words, judging from the current polls, if Blue and White really unite, it will indeed put a lot of pressure on Lai Xiaopei. As for whether blue and white will fit together? We’ll talk about that later.

3. Pay attention to the fact that the Legislative Yuan election may become a gateway for CCP infiltration

And thirdly, no matter which group of candidates is elected next year, we must pay special attention to another battlefield: the congressional election of the Legislative Yuan. Because the Legislative Yuan is likely to become an important gateway for the CCP to penetrate Taiwan’s national security and interfere in its internal affairs.

According to the Legislative Election Poll conducted by Mirror News, the Kuomintang has the highest support among legislators at 32.6%, followed by the Democratic Progressive Party at 28.5%, and the People’s Party at 9.7%. In other words, after next year’s legislative election, the probability of “three parties with less than half” in Congress will increase significantly, and the Legislative Yuan may even be dominated by the Kuomintang.

If this result really occurs, it will not be surprising, because the “nine-in-one election” at the end of last year, in which the Kuomintang won a big victory and the DPP was defeated, has already reflected this trend. Objectively speaking, because the Democratic Progressive Party’s governance over the past eight years has dissatisfied voters, a comprehensive political party rotation will be carried out in the “nine-in-one” local elections. To be honest, this is actually normal, and it fully reflects that Taiwan is a free system where sovereignty rests with the people. People can supervise the government through their votes and demand the quality of governance and clean politics.

However, this legislative election involves Taiwan’s congressional legislative election, and legislators can not only supervise the government and review the budget, but also have access to important state secret documents. So think about it, if you were the Chinese Communist Party, would you not only hope to win Taiwan’s president through the general election, but also send someone to win Taiwan’s parliament? Of course!

Because to win the president is to win the executive power, to win the Congress is to win the legislative power. If the presidential election is lost, at least taking over the legislative power of Congress can also play several important roles:

• Intervene in Taiwan government operations through budget review and control.
• Pressure on various government departments through legislators’ privileges and political inquiries.
• Access state secrets and military secrets and forward them to the Beijing authorities.
• Accelerate the penetration of Taiwan by passing legislation that is conducive to the CCP’s united front.
• Promote cross-strait reunification through a peace agreement or other agreements.
• Initiate a presidential recall or cabinet overthrow to subvert the Taiwanese regime.

Well, these six powers are the unique powers of the Legislative Yuan and directly affect Taiwan’s domestic affairs, foreign affairs, military and national defense, so we must not underestimate next year’s congressional elections. In particular, Taiwan’s legislator Ma Wenjun has recently been suspected of leaking state secrets and interfering with plans to build domestic submarines, which has threatened Taiwan’s military and national defense.

Although the Kuomintang did not put pro-communist military legislator Wu Sihuai and police legislator You Yulan on the list of non-district legislators this time, the Kuomintang did put Han Kuo-yu, who was dismissed twice by the people of Taiwan, on the list of non-district legislators. The first place, that is, Han Guoyu will definitely enter the Legislative Yuan, and he will also wear a “death-free gold medal” bulletproof vest, because legislators cannot be removed regardless of division.

We must say that Han Kuo-yu is indeed a powerful political prince within the Kuomintang. But the problem is that Han Kuo-yu had a very close relationship with the CCP in the past. Not only did he become the first Taiwanese elected official to be entertained by the Liaison Office of the Central People’s Government in Hong Kong, The CCP also sent people to bribe Taiwanese businessmen, asking them to return to Taiwan and vote for Han Kuo-yu.

These news are not “smoothing” on our part; they are all well-documented facts. Although we don’t know whether Han Kuo-yu has anything to do with the CCP behind his back, we suggest that friends in Taiwan must not underestimate next year’s congressional elections.

For the Chinese Communist Party, it would be best if the pro-communist camp can win the presidency and executive power next year. But if something goes wrong, it can at least win the legislative power, that is, it can win the legislative president and a majority. If the number of legislative seats is increased, the CCP’s united front to disrupt and annex Taiwan will have great potential.

Therefore, next year’s presidential election and congressional elections are bound to be a very important and critical hard-fought and fierce battle. It is a battle to defend the system of Taiwan’s freedom and democracy, and it is also a battle to defend the first island chain’s anti-communist defense line. However, we also understand very well that many Taiwanese voters want to change parties and hope for another political party rotation.

But when the party changes, will one accidentally switch to the Communist Party? How to avoid this risk? This is the political joint examination that every Taiwanese voter will face next year.

News 2: Blue and white teaming up?Five clues and still play

As we just said, the “blue and white alliance” between the Kuomintang and the People’s Party seems to be broken now. Ke Wenzhe has already said that he will fight to the end as a candidate of the People’s Party, and Hou Youyi also said that he will go his own way. It’s like a couple breaking up, going their separate ways and never looking back. But is it really so?

First of all, we need to know that the main reason why Ke Wenzhe reneged on the “Blue and White Cooperation” is that he was worried that if he cooperated with the Kuomintang and he served as his deputy, it would affect the People’s Party’s legislative election, and the People’s Party might bubble up as a result. His political Life may become bleak as a result. But the Kuomintang is a century-old party with money, people and organizations, and of course it is not willing to stoop to being a deputy. This is the fundamental contradiction between the two parties.

But both sides also know that if the two sides do not work together, no one can win the election on their own, and the probability of Lai Xiaopei winning will be very high. So I don’t think that “Blue and White” has completely broken the situation, but “reset the situation”. There are at least five clues to see this:

First, although Ke Wenzhe held a swearing-in meeting and declared to “fight to the end,” he did not announce who his deputy would be. Although he may already have a pocket list, if he doesn’t share the list, he may be leaving room for maneuver in the Blue-White negotiations.

The second clue is that although Ko Wenzhe came back to Terry Gou and said he wanted to “further study statistics,” Gou didn’t show up at Ko’s swearing-in meeting. This was tantamount to sending a signal to the Kuomintang that Ko Wenzhe had not yet decided on a partner. There is still room for negotiation between the two parties regarding the candidate.

Third, have you noticed? Ko Wenzhe used the word “fight to the end” and did not say that he would “fight to the end” as a member of the People’s Party. There is a lot of room for imagination behind this word game. Does fighting mean fighting alone or with Hou Youyi? Does it mean the end of this month, the end of the year, or until the end of the election?

Someone asked Ke Ban’s spokesperson, but Ke Ban’s answer was that “everyone can interpret it individually.” This answer is like leaving an open ending at the end of a movie. It doesn’t tell the truth or reveal the ending, which hints that there may be a sequel.

The fourth clue is that the media revealed that Ke Wenzhe called the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation after reneging on the blue-white alliance, revealing that the two sides had not broken the situation, but he had to be given more time. What to do if you give him time? Ke didn’t say, but it was probably to give him time to do some crisis management to win back the young voters who supported him.

The fifth clue is that Blue and White’s staff met again for negotiation. The Ke camp later said that “there is no option for Hou Ke to match” at the moment. This sentence has two meanings: First, if Blue and White want to unite, Ke can only do so. As a concubine, Ke wants to be the main palace; secondly, although Lan and Bai can’t get along yet, the two sides can continue to talk.

Therefore, in my opinion, Blue and White have not completely broken the situation, but are still wrestling. Ke P used the “breakup tactic” to put extreme pressure on the Blue camp, but this also means that the two sides will continue to talk. . So before the presidential registration deadline on November 24, we may see new changes and new sequels.

And let’s not forget that the CCP, the big boss behind the scenes, went to great lengths to interfere in this election. They first intimidated Foxconn and forced Terry Gou to withdraw from the election; then they summoned Ma Ying-jeou’s people and gave them face-to-face advice. We don’t know what the plan was. . But soon Ma Ying-jeou took the initiative, forcing Ke Wenzhe to agree to the Blue and White partnership.

We don’t know what trick Ma Ying-jeou used to force Ke Wenzhe to cooperate with Lan Baihe’s script. Are you telling him that if he doesn’t cooperate, he will be given a “death grip”? Although Ke regretted it, he took the initiative to tell Ma Ying-jeou “give him some more time.” The implication should be that Ke P is willing to cooperate with the performance according to the script given by Ma, but he wants to compete with the Kuomintang again in terms of what role to perform and what lines to say.

Well, having said that, I want to ask the most critical question. Since the big script of Blue and White can mobilize Ma Ying-jeou, Han Guoyu, the Kuomintang and Ko Wenzhe to perform together, then the big screenwriter and director behind the script, Who on earth is it? Feel free to leave a message and tell me what you think.

Okay, that’s it for today. Thanks for watching and we’ll see you next time.

—
Mengjun

Jinse Yunyanyanxiaomeng
The west window is cut to recall the evening breeze
Qianzhuan Langchen Jun is at peace
A round of lovesickness in the bright moon

Tang Hao

Editor in charge: Li Hao#