Shi Weiquan’s column/Who should be the vice president?Bai found too many people but failed to become blue and consolidated dark blue, worried about driving away young votes

Shi Weiquan/Advisory Committee Member of Soochow University Global Chinese Business Research Center

Ke Wenzhe declared that he would “fight to the end as a presidential candidate of the People’s Party.” Is the blue-white alliance sure to break up? Former legislator Guo Zhengliang believes that this is not necessarily the case. “If we really want independent elections, why not say die? We can just ask who the deputy is. How can we register without a deputy?” Guo Zhengliang pointed out that the People’s Party is currently covering the door. It is true that the process of finding a vice presidential candidate is very difficult. If the Kuomintang Party can come up with a bright name at this moment, it will be enough to steal some of Xiao Meiqin’s glory in the news. Gender is not important, but it will definitely be enough to put pressure on the Kuomintang. On the one hand, it will increase the public The People’s Party is ready for the possibility of the party’s independent participation in the election if there is disagreement between Blue and White. On the other hand, there is an explanation for the militant faction within the People’s Party. A good vice-presidential candidate can add another boost to Ke Wenzhe’s momentum. He is definitely more interesting than having a private meeting with Terry Gou. Cheating on an older and rich Chairman Guo is an old and unethical image, not to mention that Guo is rich but has If it were not for his powerful position, he would have been marginalized in the election campaign. If it were not for the spokesperson Huang Shixiu, Guo Ying would have been almost silent.

It is not a question of when the People’s Party will announce the candidate for deputy, it cannot be raised. It turned out that Zou Kailian was targeted, and Ke Wenzhe also admitted that he had talked with her. However, Ling Media recently revealed exclusively that Zou Kailian and Hu Dexing were found to be suspected of buying Nagu Pagoda bits at low prices for charity donations in 2007, and then buying high-priced wigs. Zou Kailian pleaded guilty to evading taxes on banknotes and made donations, and was given deferred prosecution by the Beijing Prosecutor’s Office. According to an investigation by the Taipei District Prosecutor’s Office, Zou Kailian purchased 80 tower seats and evaded taxes of more than 790,000 yuan; Zou Kailian’s husband purchased 30 tower seats and evaded taxes of 367,138 yuan. The two earn a lot of money. For a mere million yuan, the money is not even enough to buy an imported car. They also spend a lot of money to buy 110 tower seats and forge more than 8 million yuan in invoices. This is a matter of values ​​​​and judgment. Zou Kailian’s ex-husband, Lin Qinsheng, also committed fraud in her name. This case has nothing to do with Zou Kailian from a judicial perspective, but once her name is on the ballot, it becomes another dispute.

Zou Kailian was out, and many people in the Kuomintang Party talked about Chen Zhaozi. Chen Zhaozi is a far-right Taiwanese independence activist. I once quoted her parent-child interaction in the column of Ling Media. Chen Zhaozi publicly talked about his child, “At a young age, he already knows that there are two people living on the land of Taiwan. He is a Chinese, and his dear parents chose to be Taiwanese. He also understands that if he wants to be lifelong good friends with his parents, it is best not to marry a Chinese wife in the future.” Her argument at the time, parental authority and caste stance Override love. At present, the KMT’s tactics tend to consolidate the deep blue and grassroots supporters. If the Kuomintang wants to differentiate itself, it does need to establish its so-called local consciousness. However, Chen Zhaozi has his own reputation among the green camp and cannot steal the green votes. If the People’s Party wants to seize the center, both light green and light blue will be chosen, and Chen Zhaozi’s far-right stance is even more negative.

The point is that the blue-white alliance may not break the situation. Who in the political arena is willing to borrow Ke Wenzhe’s name for a few days at this moment, just as a bargaining chip to boost momentum and challenge the Kuomintang? The People’s Party did find a few people, but it didn’t work. Outside the political arena, there are many people who just want to gain fame and are willing to lend their names to the People’s Party. The problem is that their social prestige is weak, and the People’s Party does not look down on them. We can’t find another Lai Peixia, who will look fake at first glance. That will be considered as “accompanying the person who accompanied the list.”

When considering candidates for deputy, the ideal situation is to use Xiao Meiqin as the benchmark first. She is good at English, has diplomatic experience, has participated in elections, has certain political strength and has a professional image. Obviously the People’s Party cannot find someone, but it will settle for the next best thing. Candidates must also look serious and have considerable experience and reputation. Regardless of gender, they can come from the industry and have good reputations in the field of public affairs. Disaster.

If the People’s Party runs alone, looking at Ling Media’s polls from May to now, it must consolidate the young group and win over undecided middle voters, so as not to affect its non-district legislators or even lead to a bubble.

According to a previous poll by Ling Media, although Ke Wenzhe was involved in misogyny controversy, and the DPP also believed that young women were leaving Ke, the numbers showed that among the 20 to 39-year-old group, Ke Wenzhe’s support was still quite high, much higher than that of the blue camp. If we look at the polls since May, Ko’s support among young people has always been 40%, behind both Lai and Hou. In the previous poll, among women aged 20 to 29, Ke Wenzhe received about 12% higher support than Lai Qingde. Among women aged 30 to 39, Lai received 6% higher support than Ke. Here, Lanying’s support is about 1/4 of Ke’s. In terms of male voters, Lai’s support is not bad, much higher than that of the blue camp. However, in the 20 to 29-year-old group, Ke won Lai by 20%. In the 30- to 39-year-old group, Ke won by 14%. In the Blue and White match, the young group is Ke Wenzhe’s biggest advantage. At this moment, the blue camp is gathering momentum, and the grassroots energy in the south is concentrated. If the Blue and White split, Ke will keep a place, and the young side must be stable.

In last year’s election, negative party spirit (hatred value) became a hot topic in the polls. What determines success or failure is not how much voters like a candidate, but how much they hate the other party. Regarding the issue of negative party spirit, Ling Media’s polls from May to now, Lai, Hou and Ke are very close, slightly above 45%. Under the objective reality that most Taiwanese voters have a clear distinction between love and hate, the key to the Blue and White race is to win over those who may support Lai Qingde at the moment, but will not necessarily vote for him by then, and Choose people, not parties, and those who tend to be neutral. 28% of the middle groups are likely to defect to Ko, 31% to Ko, and 15% to Hou. Ke is more attractive to the middle voters than Hou. These are the figures from October. The point is that many other polls at this time show that Hou is obviously more attractive. On the rise, Hou Youyi’s popularity is much higher than that of Ke Wenzhe in the group over 50 years old. This is a solid piece that Bai Ying is still unable to reverse. How can Ke continue to seize the advantages of his younger group?

Relatively speaking, for the KMT, in addition to consolidating the deep blue in the blue-white game, how to attract young people and middle voters is a difficult task. If the direction is right, it will be a fatal blow to Ke Wenzhe. How will the peace and war cards currently being played affect this region? You can refer to the polls conducted by Ling Media since May. They think there will be a war between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Taiwanese people have very different opinions. They are about half and half, and they think there will be a war. VS will not fight, the numbers in the past few months are: 49 VS 44; 44 VS 50; 42 VS 50; 43 VS 50; 46 VS 48. And I think the United States will definitely send troops, the number is about 50 vs. 40. Looking at these figures, we can understand that the Democratic Progressive Party has been emphasizing in recent days that Xi Jinping himself said there will be no war. It is Deep Blue who smeared the CCP’s image of being militaristic. Lai Ching-te’s speeches over the past two days have always emphasized the American factor and emphasized that Taiwan and the United States are the same. Belongs to the democratic camp where interests are related. If there are three pillars in the future general election, it seems that defeating the Democratic Party will only create trust in the United States; abandoning the White House to protect the Blue Party will depend on organization and the failure to drive away young votes by consolidating the Deep Blue Party.

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Original website of Ling Media: Shi Weiquan’s column/Who will be the vice president?Bai found too many people but failed to become blue and consolidated dark blue, worried about driving away young votes