At 21:30 Beijing time on Tuesday evening, the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the latest U.S. October statistics.CPIdata. The non-seasonally adjusted CPI in the United States rose by 3.2% year-on-year in October, a new low since July this year, and is expected to rise by 3.3%; the seasonally adjusted CPI remained unchanged month-on-month, a new low since July last year, and is expected to rise by 0.1%.
After the latest inflation data was released, CME’s “Fed Watch Tool” showed that the probability of “continuing to raise interest rates” at the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in December and January next year was nearly 14% and 30% respectively, which also reflects the market’s confidence in the Federal Reserve.“Unlikely to continue raising interest rates”judgment.
U.S. CPI trends in the past 48 months
The CPI released by the United States in October was lower than market expectations, reducing the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in December, which subsequently triggered global market reactions.currencyExchange rates fell across the board; major U.S. stock indexes opened higher, with FTSE China A50 Index futures and Hang Seng Index futures rising sharply during the session.
U.S. CPI in October was better than expected
Can interest rate hikes finally be stopped?
According to CCTV News, on November 14, local time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released data showing that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged month-on-month in October.Before seasonally adjusted, the year-on-year growth was 3.2%.
That month, excluding volatile food and energy prices, core CPI increased 0.2% month-on-month and 4.0% year-on-year before seasonal adjustment.
According to the Financial Associated Press, according to statistics made in advance by Nick Timilaus of the “New Federal Reserve News Agency”, the year-on-year growth expectations for nominal CPI given by major Wall Street investment banks are roughly 3.3%, while the median expected core CPI growth rate is 4.1 %. It can be seen that the data this time is better than market expectations.
After the data was released, Timilaus interpreted that: October’s non-farm report and CPI data both strongly hinted that the Federal Reserve’s last interest rate hike would be in July.A major issue of debate at the next interest rate meeting has also taken shape – whether and how the Fed will reviseinterest rateA statement of resolution to reflect an obvious fact:The Fed is on pause.
Looking at longer-term expectations, after the data was released, traders’ expected probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 100 to 125 basis points in 2024 increased from nearly 30% to 50%.
Global financial markets surge
U.S. dollar index plunges
Boosted by positive U.S. inflation data,global stock marketsThere was a scene of “jubilation”.Before the opening, the three major U.S. futures indexes rose sharply from a slight increase. The latest increases exceeded 1%, and the most intense increase wasNasdaq100 Index futures have jumped above 1.6%.
At the same time, major European indexes such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom also experienced significant intraday gains.Germany’s DAX index rose 1.4%, France’s CAC40 index rose by 1% during the day, Europe’s Stoxx 50 index rose by 1.1%, and Spain’s IBEX35 index rose by 1.16%.
After the data was released, the U.S. dollar index plummeted and fell against major currencies.The offshore RMB has appreciated significantly against the US dollar, with the RMB rising 373 basis points to 7.2557 as of press time.The FTSE China A50 Index futures and Hang Seng Index futures rose sharply, with the increase significantly expanding. Among them, the A50 Index futures rose by more than 1%.
Offshore RMB to USD
U.S. President Biden said in a statement that the United States has made more progress in reducing inflation.
According to Xinhua Finance, SDIC Essence analysis pointed out that the market was optimistic about the Federal Reserve last week.interest rateDecided to make dovish interpretation overlayUS economic dataExcellent, expectations for interest rate cuts next year once reached four times. However, last week, Fed spokesmen including Powell issued a hawkish signal. Powell said that if appropriate, he would not hesitate to further tighten monetary policy, leaving the possibility of another subsequent interest rate hike. Expectations for radical interest rate cuts are being revised.In addition, risk aversion caused by geopolitical conflicts is also cooling down.oil priceGe is also pulling back.
(Source of article: Daily Economic News)
Article source: Daily Economic News
Original title: Late night big news! The U.S. dollar plummeted, and the RMB exchange rate soared 370 points during the session. Is the turning point really coming?
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