24K99 News On Monday (November 13), before the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of gold (XAU/USD) rose slightly due to the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury bond yields. Gold prices rose as they encountered some buyers as U.S. Treasury yields fell and the U.S. dollar weakened overall.
(Spot gold trend chart, source: FX168)
Spot gold closed up 0.41% at $1,946.09 per ounce.
The settlement price of COMEX December gold futures closed up 0.65% at $1,950.2 per ounce.
COMEX silver futures rose 0.5% during the day, closing at $22.4 per ounce. U.S. stocks fell to $21.93 per ounce before the market opened, approaching the intraday low of $21.88 per ounce on October 12.
[Market News Analysis]
Most traders are looking for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI). Earlier, a New York Fed poll showed one-year inflation expectations were cooling, with prices in October expected to fall to 3.3% from 3.7% a year earlier. Core CPI is forecast at 4.1%, the same as previously recorded. U.S. Treasury bond yields rose slightly on Monday. In late trading in New York on Monday (November 13), the U.S. 10-year benchmark Treasury bond yield fell 1.79 basis points to 4.6340%, trading in the range of 4.6956%-4.6221%. The two-year U.S. Treasury yield fell about 3.00 basis points, hitting a refresh day low of 5.0306%. U.S. stocks rose to a daily high of 5.0793% at the beginning of the session. The three-month Treasury bill/10-year U.S. Treasury yield spread fell 3.208 basis points to -79.416 basis points. The 02/10-year U.S. Treasury yield spread rose 0.768 basis points to -40.280 basis points. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) fell 1.30 basis points to 2.3073%.
Although the Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues, political risks remain muted based on market reaction. However, an escalation in the conflict remains and could be positive for gold.
Meanwhile, gold traders will get some clues from a Fed spokesman this week. Governor Lisa Cook failed to provide any headlines on monetary policy on Monday, but Tuesday’s agenda will be dominated by Fed Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson and the New York Fed’s John Williams and Lisa Cook. On Wednesday, leaders of China and the United States met at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
Economists at ANZ analyze the outlook for gold. They said central bank gold purchases remained strong and new political tensions would protect the downside for gold prices. In addition to this, the U.S. monetary tightening cycle has ended and the dollar is about to peak. “We expect central bank gold purchases to remain strong. Based on the current pace of purchases, we increase our demand forecast from 750 tons in 2023 and 800 tons in 2024.” Increased to 1,050 tons.”
Goldman Sachs expects commodity returns to increase over the next 12 months as spot prices rise due to easing monetary policy and recession fears, while the asset class also strengthens as a hedge against political supply risks. The bank forecasts a 12-month commodity return of 21% for the oil-heavy S&P GSCI Commodities Index, with energy and industrial metals returning 31% and 17.8% respectively.
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“We recommend going long commodities in 2024 as we expect attractive carry returns from structural tailwinds as the cyclical backdrop improves and spot commodity prices There will be some gains and the view is that hedging value will offset negative supply shocks. Core deflation suggests that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are done raising interest rates, which may ease pressure on GDP growth and support commodity demand.”
Goldman Sachs said an OPEC-driven decline in oil inventories and demand for so-called green metals would also boost the commodity’s returns. “Energy and gold can also be an effective hedge against negative supply shocks from political or other developments amid slower growth in other assets, particularly risk assets,” the bank wrote.
[Focus on financial data and events in the next trading day (Beijing time)]
① 10:00 U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen holds a press conference
② 15:00 UK unemployment rate in October
③ 15:00 Number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the UK in October
④ 15:45 Swiss National Bank President Jordan delivers a speech
⑤ 16:00 Fed Williams delivers a speech
⑥ 17:00 IEA releases monthly crude oil market report
⑦ 18:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in November
⑧ 18:00 Eurozone third quarter GDP annual rate revision
⑨ 18:00 Eurozone November ZEW Economic Sentiment Index
⑩ 18:00 Quarterly employment rate in the Eurozone after seasonally adjustment in the third quarter
⑪ 18:30 Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech
⑫ 19:00 US October NFIB Small Business Confidence Index
⑬ 21:30 US October non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate
⑭ 21:30 US October seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate
⑮ 21:30 U.S. core CPI annual rate in October without seasonal adjustment
⑯ 21:30 US October core CPI monthly rate
⑰ 21:30 Federal Reserve Barkin delivers a speech
⑱ Fed Goolsby delivered a speech at 01:45 the next day
⑲ 05:30 the next day, API crude oil inventories in the United States for the week to November 10
⑳ At 06:00 the next day, MSCI released the November index review report