The Blue-White coalition, with increasingly tight time pressure, is still unresolved. Not only are Blue camp supporters and voters who are eager to remove the DPP feel anxious, but the media are also speculating on whether the tie will be broken in the end. However, after former President Ma Ying-jeou proposed a national poll plan, After Ke Wenzhe stated that he was willing to negotiate with Hou Youyi, and Hou Youyi emphasized that he respects everyone’s opinions, the opportunity to choose the peak route appeared again. In fact, whether blue and white can unite or not is entirely up to Ke Wenzhe. If united, it will be mutually beneficial and win-win. If divided, both sides will suffer losses. The question is, can he give up his obsession with “nothing is right”?
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To be fair, there is really no reason for blue and white to disagree. Because from the perspective of rational decision-making, Blue and White will definitely gain more than they lose from Ke Wenzhe, who is bent on seeking the maximum political interests for himself and the People’s Party. If Blue and White breaks the tie, and the last three groups of people stand for election, Ke Wenzhe’s chance of being elected president is very slim, because the DPP’s base is around 40%, and the KMT’s worst is not less than 30%, even if all the remaining votes are given. Ke Wenzhe also lost.
However, the Ke camp originally estimated that if Ke Wenzhe ran for the election, he would get at least 25 to 30 percent of the votes. Based on 14 million people voting at 30 yuan per vote, he would get 15 million to 15 million. Although the 126 million yuan will be received by the People’s Party, Ko Wenzhe can completely control it. In addition, the votes for non-district legislators are expected to be at least 20%, and each vote will be subsidized by 50 yuan, and the People’s Party will receive another 100 million per year. Forty million yuan. As for the legislators, they can get about eight to ten seats regardless of district, and one to two seats by district; other than that, there is nothing.
On the other hand, if Blue and White succeeds in winning the election, it is estimated that the vote rate will not be less than 48%. The two parties can negotiate for a 50-50 presidential election subsidy. Although the People’s Party may receive 10 to 20 million yuan less, it will not Subsidies for district legislator elections will not be affected at all; more importantly, since the Blue and White coalition government is formed, not only Ko Wenzhe will be the vice president, but the People’s Party will also be able to obtain the vice president of the Executive Yuan and at least four or five heads of ministries. Overnight, the People’s Party has huge political resources. It is conceivable that the interests of this one-man party are huge. If we take a step back and think about it, even if Blue and White fail to win the election, Ko Wenzhe will only lose 10 to 20 million, but Blue and White should be able to control a majority in Congress, which will still be a boon to the People’s Party!
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In this case, why does Ke Wenzhe keep delaying? There is no doubt that this is his negotiation strategy. He believes that the Kuomintang will do whatever it takes to win the election, so he adopts an uncompromising attitude and forces the Kuomintang to compromise. Secondly, he has always believed that even if Hou Youyi is not a box office poison, he may still have limited bonus points.
According to the Ke camp’s wishful thinking, Ko Wenzhe controls the young votes, especially those aged 20 to 39, which accounts for about 60%; coupled with Guo’s “technological blue” and “economic blue”, and Han Guoyu’s partner, etc. When the war begins, Hou Youyi cannot build up momentum. Blue-camp voters who hope that the DPP will be removed will shift on a large scale. Once Hou Youyi’s support drops to between 15 and 20%, the bail-abandonment effect will occur. , Ke Wenzhe can be elected.
This kind of calculation is actually just wishful thinking, because back then, Soong Chuyu, as the provincial governor, had stakes in 319 towns and villages. His strength was unmatched by anyone, but in the end he only received 36% of the votes. The Popular Party has no grassroots organization and weak mobilization power. It only relies on air votes and can only get 30% at most.
Obviously, Ke Wenzhe is still observing and evaluating. If Lai Qingde’s polls continue to fall and his own polls continue to rise, he will insist on running for the election; on the contrary, if Hou Youyi comes from behind, the polls will surpass Ke Wenzhe in all aspects, and the Blue and White combination has a high chance of winning. , he will accept Hou Kepei’s arrangement. The People’s Party recently launched three polls, in which Ko Wenzhe was ahead of Lai Qingde and Hou Youyi. This is very different from other long-term and intensive polls. It is obviously just a strategic poll and is completely unfounded.
Blue and White have once again turned a corner. What remains to be seen now is whether Ke Wenzhe puts the interests of the Taiwanese people above the interests of the People’s Party!
