(Central News Agency reporter Wu Baiwei, Taipei, 12th) U.S. President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in San Francisco on the 15th. Scholars analyze that the two sides are bound to discuss the Taiwan issue and reiterate their respective positions. However, due to the existence of fundamental differences, it is foreseeable that the proportion of discussion will not be too high.
China and the United States recently announced that Xi Jinping will go to San Francisco, the United States, to hold a Sino-US leaders’ meeting from the 14th to the 17th. He will also be invited to attend the 30th Informal Leaders’ Meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC).
Scholars generally believe that the Taiwan issue is naturally a topic that must be discussed when the two sides meet, but it may not be prioritized in order, and the proportion of discussion may also be restrained.
Guo Yuren, a professor at the Institute of China and Asia-Pacific Studies at Sun Yat-sen University, analyzed that the U.S. technology blockade and punitive tariffs have hit and impacted China, which is bound to be something that China will be concerned about during the talks this time. As for geopolitical conflicts, the priority of the United States is to stabilize the situation in the Middle East first, followed by conflicts in the South China Sea such as the Second Thomas Shoal (called “Ren’ai Reef” in China), then the war between Ukraine and Russia, and finally the Taiwan Strait.
Guo Yuren believes that in a situation where many issues must be discussed, it is foreseeable that the proportion of Taiwan Strait issues will not be so heavy and the order will be placed later, because no matter what the two sides talk about, Taiwan’s elections continue to be carried out, and the two sides do not Discussing what cannot change the situation in the Taiwan Strait, “I think this talk will not have any substantive effect in easing the situation in the Taiwan Strait.”
He said that even so, both sides will definitely reiterate their respective positions and bottom lines on the Taiwan issue during the meeting, because this is a “basic provision.”
Zhang Wuyue, director of the Cross-Strait Relations Research Center at Tamkang University, analyzed in an interview with the Central News Agency that China certainly hopes to return to the basis of “four no’s, one unintention” on the Taiwan issue (the United States does not seek to fight a new cold war with China and does not seek to change China’s system). , does not seek to strengthen alliances against China, does not support Taiwan independence, and has no intention of conflict with China).
In addition, since Taiwan is about to hold a presidential election, China should also hope not to send the wrong message to “those who support Taiwan independence” before the election. After the election, no matter who is elected, China will definitely reiterate its established policies. Therefore, How to achieve consensus and the bottom line among the “one-China policy”, “peaceful settlement of the Taiwan Strait issue” and “Taiwan elections” should be the focus of the negotiations during this meeting with Xi Jinping.
Zhang Wuyue observed that not only Taiwan has elections, but the United States will also face a presidential election next year. Therefore, it is also foreseeable that the United States will not be able to completely succumb to China’s demands.
Kou Jianwen, a distinguished professor at the Institute of Political Science and East Asia at National Chengchi University and director of the International Relations Research Center, believes that in order to manage risks, there is a need to talk about “Taiwan issues” from both the United States and China’s perspectives.
He also mentioned that since Taiwan is about to hold a presidential election, China will inevitably hope that the United States will remain neutral and not support a specific candidate. No matter who is elected, it will definitely have a significant impact on US-China-Taiwan relations after 2024. (Editor: Tang Peijun) 1121112
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