Today’s focus
Today (November 10), the US dollar rose at the opening of the Asian market, while other currencies generally fell; both gold prices and crude oil showed an upward trend. In terms of foreign exchange: the US dollar index rose to 105.94; the euro against the US dollar fell to 1.0664; the pound against the US dollar fell to 1.2215; the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose to 151.32; the US dollar against the Canadian dollar rose to 1.3812; the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell to 0.6361. Precious metals: Gold rose to 1959.35 against the US dollar. Crude oil: Brent crude oil rose to 79.83.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
After closing sharply higher on Thursday, the U.S. dollar index opened higher today at around 105.94. The U.S. dollar gained support as Federal Reserve Chairman Powell poured cold water on Wall Street’s dovish bets.
Powell told an International Monetary Fund event that officials would not hesitate to tighten monetary policy if needed. While that’s essentially what several Fed spokespeople have been signaling, it’s part of what’s caught investors’ attention, especially after stocks and bonds rallied. Powell’s comments also led traders to view further Fed rate hikes as slightly more likely, while reducing bets on a rate cut before July. Evercore ISI analyst Krishna Guha said Powell’s stern tone could reasonably be interpreted as an attempt to argue against further easing of financial conditions, dampen expectations for rate cuts and preserve the option of further hikes if needed. We believe this does not represent a substantive shift in policy signaling, but rather a revision in tone.
In terms of financial event data yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the number of initial and continuing jobless claims for the weeks ending October 28 and November 4 fell to 217,000 and rose to 1.834 million compared with expectations, reflecting the labor force population’s changes with the job market. Dynamic and fluctuating.
From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 105.90, 106.20; from the downward direction, the lower support is 105.50.
EUR/GBP (EURGBP):
EUR/GBP opened higher today near 0.8729 after closing sharply higher on Thursday, as CIBC Capital Markets economists analyzed the Bank of England’s policy outlook and expected sterling to remain under pressure.
Boris Vucic, member of the Board of Governors of the European Central Bank and President of the National Bank of Croatia, said in an interview that if our current forecasts can be realized, then we will achieve a soft landing at a low sacrifice rate, which means There will be no recession and unemployment will not rise significantly. We cannot be sure that this situation will remain until the target is achieved, but in my view, a soft landing for the economy remains a core option. Most economists at Wells Fargo believe that regardless of whether the euro zone will fall into recession, the euro zone’s economic growth has reached sufficient resistance, indicating that the European Central Bank’s monetary tightening policy has ended. However, we believe that the ECB still wants to see the underlying inflation trend closer to and maintained around the 2% inflation target before it feels comfortable starting a monetary easing cycle.
In terms of British interest rate policy, the Bank of England held interest rates at 5.25% for the second consecutive time at its October meeting. Analysis by Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Capital Markets economists The high and persistent CPI in the UK shows that the Bank of England is a laggard in monetary easing policy, which highlights the poor macro performance in 2024. A corollary of weaker macro data and moderating interest rate expectations (we expect Q1 terminal rate expectations to be revised down from the current 7 basis points), GBP is expected to continue its decline towards the end of the year.
From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 0.8720, 0.8770; from the downward direction, the lower support is 0.8680.
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CPT Markets risk warning and disclaimer: The content of the above article is for reference only and does not serve as future investment advice. The articles published by CPT Markets are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news.
author:
CPT Markets
