(Central News Agency reporter Pan Ziyu, Taipei, 7th) The General Accounting Office announced today that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 3.05% year-on-year in October, breaking through the 3% level again, setting a nine-month high. The General Accounting Office explained that typhoons are coming one after another. The attack caused crop damage and caused prices to rise, but this is a short-term factor and the increase will fall back in November.
Since the beginning of this year, as international agricultural and industrial raw material prices have stabilized, the CPI growth rate has steadily declined in the first half of the year, falling below the 2% inflation warning line in June and July. The outside world originally expected inflation to come to an end, but since August, the annual CPI growth rate has once again exceeded 2%. The October CPI announced today has exceeded 3%, and the outside world is worried that inflation will come back.
“This is a short-term factor caused by the typhoon, and inflationary pressure has not increased.” Cao Zhihong, a special committee member of the General Accounting Office, explained that since late July, typhoons Dusuri, Kanu, Sula, Hainan, and Xiaogu have hit one after another. Some typhoons have caused considerable damage, leading to higher prices for vegetables and fruits, which in turn has pushed up prices.
Cao Zhihong pointed out that taking a closer look at the structure of the CPI in October, vegetables and fruits alone affected the overall index increase by 0.63 percentage points, contributing 20%. In other words, if the prices of vegetables and fruits remain unchanged, the CPI increase in October will converge to 2.42%.
If we look at the core CPI excluding fruits, vegetables and energy, the annual growth rate is 2.49%, which is equivalent to September’s performance. In October, the annual growth rate of CPI, which is important for people’s livelihood, was 3.47%, with the growth rate converging for three consecutive months.
Cao Zhihong said that the annual CPI growth rate exceeding 3% in October was due to short-term factors, not rising inflationary pressure; as the weather stabilizes and vegetable prices fall, there is a high chance that price increases in November will be less than 3%.
Cao Zhihong further pointed out that the annual growth rate of core CPI in the first quarter of this year was 2.69%, 2.64% in the second quarter, and 2.60% in the third quarter. The growth rate converged quarter by quarter; however, due to the “high stickiness” of the core CPI, the rate of decline was slow. , is still at a relatively high level, so even if the pressure is slightly relieved, the public will still feel the rising prices more deeply.
Analyzing the three key factors that affect the core CPI, dining out expenses, rent and entertainment services, Cao Zhihong analyzed that the monthly growth rate of dining out expenses in the past three months has returned to the long-term average level, showing signs of the end of the rise. Entertainment services also suffered from a decline in October last year. With the border unblocked, demand has rapidly increased and the base period has been raised, which will help alleviate the pressure; only after the annual growth rate of rent fell below 2% in the first few months, it is now standing at 2%, and we have to observe the subsequent changes.
Looking forward to the price trend, Cao Zhihong said that as the season enters winter, the probability of typhoons is greatly reduced, and the interference of weather factors on prices is reduced. The main uncertainty next is the international oil price; however, judging from the current oil price trend, the impact of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is limited , there are also dual stabilization mechanisms in the country, both of which help to mitigate the impact of external uncertainties. (Editor: Pan Yijing) 1121107
