Text: Shi Shuhua Photo source: Photo by Huang Mingtang
Taiwan’s first “2023 Regional Security Troops Recommendation” across the Taiwan Strait initiated by retired generals has been announced. What will the conflict in the Taiwan Strait look like? Where are Taiwan’s private sector and businesses inadequately prepared for the war? Surprisingly, the key to the answer is not how China will use force to invade Taiwan, or the scale of war damage among the United States, China and Taiwan. The outcome and impact of the conflict depend on Taiwan’s own resilience.
Let’s go back to July this year. The number of aircraft flying in and out of the Taiwan Air Defense Identification Zone set a new record, and a smokeless “Taiwan Strait War” was simultaneously staged at the Public Enterprise Center of National Chengchi University.
In a two-day closed-door conflict simulation, dozens of invited participants gathered around a high-precision map of Taiwan and were divided into advisory groups, analysis groups, and six-party exercises involving Taiwan, China, the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, Macao, and ASEAN. The group deduce the consequences of the eight major scenarios in which China invades Taiwan.
“We have been stuck in D-day (combat day) thinking this year,” said Chen Yongkang, the main initiator behind this war campaign and former deputy defense minister, shaking his head.
Taiwan needs to get rid of D-Day myths
For more than a year, the Taiwan Strait has been called “the most dangerous place in the world” by foreign media. With the political collision between the United States and China, it has been warned that it will explode in 2025 or 2027.
Recently, in the New York Times, he commented, “No, Xi Jinping will not immediately ‘take over’ Taiwan by force” on the grounds that the CCP is facing great dangers from invading Taiwan at this time. Bonnie Glaser, an expert at an important think tank in Washington, told “The World” Frankly speaking, all parties have been throwing out possible military timetables for a long time, but the trigger for the intensification this year may have come from an internal document by US Air Force General Michael Minihan.
“The information used by the United States when talking about conflicts across the Taiwan Strait and even estimating the number of Communist landings is somewhat outdated.” In the first half of this year, Chen Yongkang was invited to attend many security seminars in Washington, D.C. He was surprised to find that overseas military launches may be out of date. problem.
American think tank scholars admit: There is a gap in our military information
For example, he, who was a naval general, said that due to climate change and urbanization, the beaches in western Taiwan have severely receded. Coupled with man-made facilities such as slope blocks and wind turbines, there are almost no suitable places for enemy forces to launch regular amphibious landings in the western part of Taiwan. “Red Beach”, but according to the war prediction results of important American think tanks, it is still expected that more than 100,000 people from the People’s Liberation Army will land on Taiwan’s main island.
“After listening to the briefings by Taiwanese experts including Chen Yongkang, we did understand that there was a gap in information,” a US think tank scholar admitted in a low-key manner. In addition to filling in the basic background, Chen Yongkang has another clear reason for leading this civilian military campaign, which is to encourage all walks of life to think carefully about what else Taiwan can prepare?
The key to Taiwan’s preparations for war is people’s livelihood preparations
Last year, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan, and the People’s Liberation Army then staged a “72-hour Taiwan Blockade” military exercise, which was like launching a “Taiwan Strait” warning. “For the CCP, the cost of trapping Taiwan is obviously lower than the cost of attacking Taiwan,” said Chen Yongkang.
However, limited by the war and terrain, it may be difficult for the US military to provide “large amounts” of supplies from Taiwan’s east coast ports. “The demand for supplies is definitely huge. Not to mention the psychological resilience of Taiwan’s will under the long-term blockade,” the report reads.
In this military campaign, we also clearly saw the possible gaps in our people’s livelihood preparations. According to the results of the deduction, the People’s Liberation Army can target Taiwan’s power supply system, airport oil depots and other important infrastructure. Both battlefields and civilians will face a situation of no public power supply for 72 to 96 hours, but civilians and enterprises are obviously not prepared.
“Foreign military campaigns in the Taiwan Strait will not include economic and people’s livelihood aspects, but Taiwan must look at the overall national security level,” said Chen Yongkang.
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