Following the “two consecutive declines” in the early period, domesticoil priceAnother good news!
According to domesticRefined oilPrice adjustment mechanism, at 24:00 on November 7 (Tuesday), domestic oil prices will usher in the 22nd price adjustment of the year.According to data from professional institutions, on the 8th working day, the reference crude oil change rate was -2.48%, and it is expected that gasolinediesel fuelIt was reduced by 100 yuan/ton, breaking the red line of 50 tons. If there are no major changes, oil prices are expected to achieve “three consecutive declines.”
Based on the current decline, oil prices are expected to drop by 0.08-0.09 yuan/liter. Car owners who want to fill up a car with a 50-liter fuel tank can expect to save 4-4.5 yuan.
Oil prices will adjust on Tuesday
Good news, domestic oil prices may drop again!
According to the domestic refined oil retail price adjustment mechanism, at 24:00 on November 7 (Tuesday), domestic oil prices will usher in the 22nd round of adjustment this year. Judging from the current observation data, there is a high probability that this round of oil price adjustment will continue to decline.
According to observation data from professional institutions, on November 3, the change rate of reference crude oil on the eighth working day was -2.48%. It is expected that gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 100 yuan/ton, exceeding the 50-ton reduction red line.
Based on the current downward adjustment, oil prices are expected to decrease by 0.08-0.09 yuan/liter. Car owners who want to fill up a car with a 50-liter fuel tank can expect to save 4-4.5 yuan. Although the decrease is not large, it is still good news.
Looking back, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have experienced “10 increases, 8 decreases, and 3 strandings.” Among them, the last two rounds of oil price adjustments have been downward adjustments. Data from the National Development and Reform Commission show that on October 10 and October 24, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 85 yuan/80 yuan and 70 yuan/70 yuan per ton. With this round of reductions as expected, domestic oil prices will achieve a “three consecutive declines” and travel costs are expected to continue to decrease.
International oil prices have fallen recently
Looking back, crude oil fell for the second consecutive week this week. Crude oil prices oscillate between the positive effects of geopolitical tensions and the negative effects of weakening crude oil supply and demand.
As of the close of trading on November 3, the price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$1.95 to close at US$80.51 per barrel, a decrease of 2.36%; London Brent crude oil for delivery in January 2024 Futures prices fell by US$1.96 to close at US$84.89 per barrel, a decrease of 2.26%.
According to foreign media reports, on November 3, local time, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill by a vote of 342 to 69 to promote penalties for entities involved in Iranian oil trade. A senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth said investors were waiting to see whether Saudi Arabia would keep its official selling price unchanged as concerns about the contagion of the crisis in the Middle East subsided.
Looking ahead, oil traders will focus on Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, which is expected to increase employment to 180,000 in October from 336,000 in September. These events could have a significant impact on crude oil prices in U.S. dollars. Oil traders will take cues from the data and look for trading opportunities around crude oil prices. Investors should also continue to monitor developments in the Middle East, where wider conflict could disrupt supplies in the region and keep oil markets on edge.
Goldman Sachspointed out that Brent crude oil is expected to rise to US$100 per barrel by June next year as the stock market declines slightly. However, Brent crude prices are unlikely to sustain above $105 a barrel in 2024, which is the upper end of OPEC’s “sweet spot” range of $80-105. While the impact of productivity and oil demand trends is also critical, the market could become very tight in the longer term. The oil market is currently slightly tighter than usual and is tightening further at a moderate pace, but there is considerable spare capacity to deal with short-term tightening shocks.
China International Finance SecuritiesIt is expected that in the fourth quarter, geopolitical conflicts and macro downward pressure will continue to compete, causing continued disturbance to crude oil prices, and oil prices may continue to maintain a volatile operation. If the Palestinian-Israeli conflict continues to escalate and Saudi Arabia has abundant remaining crude oil production capacity, there will still be great uncertainty on the crude oil supply side.
(Source of article: China Fund News)
Source of article: China Fund News
Original title: The time is set!Oil prices are about to adjust
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