Today (November 02), the US dollar fell at the opening of the Asian market, and other currencies generally rose; the price of gold rose, but crude oil showed a downward trend. In terms of foreign exchange: the U.S. dollar index fell to 106.46; the EURUSD rose to 1.0588; the GBP/USD rose to 1.2183; the USD/JPY fell to 150.54; the USD/CAD fell to 1.3834; the Australian dollar rose to 0.6425. Precious metals: Gold rose to 1985.00 against the US dollar. Crude oil: Brent crude oil fell to 84.99.
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):
After closing sharply on Thursday, the U.S. dollar index opened down to around 106.15 today. As the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States increased for the sixth consecutive week, the U.S. dollar fell and fluctuated weakly.
Before the employment data was released, a report showed that U.S. labor productivity rose the most in three years, helping to mitigate the inflationary impact of recent wage increases. The number of people applying for unemployment benefits rose for the sixth consecutive week, indicating that it is beginning to be more difficult for unemployed people to find new jobs. While the Federal Open Market Committee is open to additional policy actions to promote strong economic growth, Fed Chairman Powell speculated that high Treasury yields may instead help the central bank keep monetary conditions restrictive to eliminate risks in this business cycle. Excessive inflation. Tolou Capital Management analyst Spencer Hakimian said that the FOMC sent a signal that the interest rate increase cycle is over, and the data in the U.S. Treasury Department’s quarterly tax refund announcement QRA exceeded expectations. We believe that by the end of the year, there will be favorable factors on the U.S. bond yield curve. In addition, Interactive Brokers analyst Jose Torres said that although Powell said that easing policy has not yet been discussed, market participants are betting that the Fed will complete the tightening policy, so an interest rate cut may be possible in the near future.
In terms of financial event data yesterday, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that the number of initial and continuing jobless claims for the weeks ending October 21 and October 28 were both higher than expected to 217,000 and 1.818 million, reflecting some employment growth in the labor market. shrink. In addition, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the monthly rate of durable goods and industrial orders in September was lower than the previous period to 4.6% and increased to 2.8% respectively.
From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 106.10, 106.60; from the downward direction, the lower support is 105.70.
After the euro-sterling surged higher and fell back on Thursday, it opened today and consolidated around 0.8710, as the Bank of England kept bank interest rates unchanged at 5.25% today. The Bank of England’s slightly hawkish tone provided support for the pound.
On Thursday, ECB board member Schnabel said that the European Central Bank expects to suppress inflation to 2% by 2025, but the last mile to achieve deflation may be the most difficult to overcome, so further hikes in interest rates cannot be ruled out. possible. In addition, the British Monetary Policy Committee voted 6 to 3 in favor of the hawks and decided to keep the bank interest rate unchanged at 5.25%. At the same time, it raised the recent inflation conditions, and the pound was supported by the boost. After the Bank of England BoE decided to keep the policy interest rate unchanged, Bank of England Governor Bailey issued a monetary policy report stating that there is currently a long way to go to curb inflation, and events in the Middle East have indeed brought uncertainty, which may lead to rising energy prices.
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In terms of financial event data yesterday, the German Statistics Office announced that the unemployment rate in October was 5.8% as expected (the number of unemployed people was reported to have increased to 30,000), reflecting the weakening of the country’s job market. However, in terms of positive data, market research organization Markit announced that the manufacturing PMI of the Eurozone in October rose to 43.1 higher than expected, with German and French manufacturing data rising particularly, higher than expected to 40.8 and 42.8 respectively, showing a slight increase in manufacturing activity. .
From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 0.8710, 0.8760; from the downward direction, the lower support is 0.8670.
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