Let’s do it! What are the positive drivers of the sudden slam of the renminbi? _ Oriental Fortune Network

Just now, the bulls finally made their move!

During the time period from 8:50 to 10:00 this morning, the RMB bulls showed their strength, and the offshore RMB against the US dollar slammed 200 points very rhythmically. Since May, the renminbi has continued to fall, with the largest margin reaching nearly 2,000 points. So, what is the driving force?

In addition, there have been recent online discussions on debt collection,artificial intelligenceThere are more scams. Another incredible thing happened today. Recently, many netizens received a “forced shooting” fraudulent text message, which sparked heated discussions on the Internet. Posted by @平安Beijing on May 25WeiboIn response to this matter, he said: “That’s it, what can I say? I am speechless… I am really speechless…” This matter was also published on thebaiduTop search list.

RMB yanked 200 points

In early trading today, the bulls of the renminbi really took action. During the time period from 8:50 to 10:00 this morning, the offshore RMB against the US dollar slammed 200 points very rhythmically. Currently, it is still in an upward trend.

The first meeting of the China Foreign Exchange Market Steering Committee (CFXC) held on May 18 in 2023 emphasized that the breadth and depth of my country’s foreign exchange market are expanding day by day, and it has the ability to balance itself. remain basically stable; in the next stage, the peoplebank1. The SAFE will strengthen supervision, management, monitoring and analysis, strengthen guidance on expectations, correct pro-cyclical and unilateral behavior when necessary, and curb speculation; member units of the self-regulatory mechanism must consciously maintain the basic stability of the foreign exchange market and resolutely curb the fluctuations of the exchange rate. On May 19, the offshore RMB exchange rate rebounded by nearly 600 points.

Judging from the current situation, unless the real bulls attack on a large scale, it is difficult to see the market like today. Because, it is not a data disclosure period, and there is no significant fact that things have changed. Although the previous April trade data was very good, the willingness to settle foreign exchange is still sluggish, which may be one of the main reasons for the continued depreciation of the renminbi.

The data showed that the current account in the first four monthsbankThe balance of foreign exchange settlement and sales on behalf of customers was 32.556 billion US dollars, far lower than the trade surplus. The main reason for this situation is the large deposit interest rate spread in the market caused by the US dollar interest rate hike.At present, there are even more than 5% of US dollar deposits on the marketinterest rate.

In addition, the domestic economic recovery has not been as strong as expected, and the recession in the United States has not been as weak as expected. One thing to watch out for, though: Recession signs in Europe have emerged, as has the issue of the US bond ceiling. In this context, there may be some adjustments in the euro and the US dollar, which may change the trend of the renminbi accordingly.

Orient SecuritiesIt is believed that from the perspective of economic fundamentals, the domestic economy continues to recover, the endogenous driving force is constantly increasing, and the policy is not issued and the force is maintained. The room for the RMB exchange rate to continue to depreciate at the current level is limited. It is expected that it is unlikely to touch the level at the end of October last year A low of around 7.3 yuan/dollar. Given that the Fed’s interest rate hike cycle has come to an end and the risk of a real economic recession is increasing, there may be more room for the RMB exchange rate to appreciate in the second half of the year.

open sourcesecuritiesHe said that historically, during the period of accelerated depreciation of the RMB exchange rate, due to capital constraints and worries about domestic fundamentals, the market may have experienced more obvious adjustments. It is expected that short-term A-shares may face phased adjustment pressure until the recovery of fundamentals improves substantially.

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(Source of article: Brokerage China)

Article source: Brokerage China

Author of the article: Shi Qian

Original title: Do it! What are the positive drivers of the sudden slam of the renminbi?Netizens receive news of “door-to-door shooting” and Beijing police’s latest response