A worker produces a forklift at a factory in Qingzhou City, east China’s Shandong Province, on October 27, 2023. (STR/AFP via Getty Images)
[The Epoch Times, November 21, 2023](Compiled and reported by Epoch Times reporter Xu Jian) Ruchir Sharma, chairman of the global asset management group Rockefeller International, said that China’s economy is changing It is a historic decline, no matter what tricks the Chinese Communist authorities use, it will be useless.
On November 19, Sharma wrote in the Financial Times that China opened up to the world in the 1980s and experienced economic development in the following decades, with its share of the global economy rising from 1990 to 2018. rose from less than 2% to 18.4% in 2021.
Now the economic reversal begins. In 2022, China’s share of the world economy will decline slightly. This year that number has plummeted to 17%, bringing it down to 1.4% in two years – the largest decline since the Mao Zedong era.
Sharma analyzed that the decline of China’s economy may reshape the world order. Since the 1990s, the growth of China’s economy’s share of global GDP has mainly been due to the share squeezed out of Europe and Japan. But in the past two years, Japan and the European Union’s global economic shares have remained stable, and the gap left by China’s economy has been mainly filled by the United States and other emerging countries.
The article said that the world economy is expected to grow by US$8 trillion in 2022 and 2023, reaching US$105 trillion, of which the United States will account for 45% and other emerging countries will account for 50%, and half of the income of emerging countries will come from five of them. Countries: India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil and Poland, without China.
Sharma said that China’s demographic dividend has been lost, and the proportion of the working-age population in the world has dropped from a peak of 24% to 19%, and is expected to drop to 10% in the next 35 years. The share of economic growth will almost certainly decline as well.
Sharma analyzed that while the world is fighting inflation, China is one of the few economies suffering from deflation and is also facing the bursting of the real estate bubble triggered by debt, which usually leads to the depreciation of the local currency. Meanwhile, investors are pulling money out of China at a record pace, adding to pressure on the yuan.
The article concluded that the leader of the Communist Party of China has expressed great confidence in the past, saying that “the east rises and the west falls”, but he greeted Biden with a smile at the San Francisco summit last week, which at least acknowledged that China still needs foreign business partners.
He said that in fact, almost no matter what the Beijing authorities do, China’s proportion in the global economy is likely to decline in the foreseeable future, and now is an era of “post-China economy.”
Editor in charge: Lin Yan#