Miserable Tianjin: From Nothing to Nothing (Photo) Industry | Investment | Manufacturing | Export | Population | Salary Cut | News Tianjin – Watch China News Network – Overseas Chinese Historical Secrets Financial Observation | Jing Ye

[Look at China November 13, 2023]Tianjin is currently a very weak city in mainland China. Although it is a municipality in name, Tianjin does not have any benchmark or pillar industries due to the blood-sucking effect of Beijing. Once, South Korea’s Samsung was the strongest foreign company in Tianjin. However, starting in 2015, Samsung withdrew from China, causing heavy damage to Tianjin’s economy. Tianjin’s automobile industry has also become silent. The once famous Xiali Automobile has long since disappeared without a trace. Now it relies on some fringe brands of Toyota and Volkswagen to maintain a weak sales of 700,000 to 800,000 vehicles per year. Yield. Compared with the country’s total annual automobile production of more than 20 million vehicles, it is almost negligible.
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The Tianjin Binhai New Area development that began in 2010 has developed China’s most famous “ghost town” and has become a negative model for the development of new urban areas in all cities in China. If Tianjin hadn’t barely caught on to the trend of the times after 2018, catered to the needs of food delivery, and developed motorcycle and battery manufacturing industries, Tianjin’s manufacturing industry would have been almost wiped out. No matter from which perspective, Tianjin is a failed city. That is to say, Tianjin, in the name of a municipality directly under the Central Government, can still get some care in terms of political resources. Otherwise, in theory, the economic scale of a city like Tianjin with nothing is It should be weaker than Shijiazhuang.
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Reflected in the data, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in Tianjin, after reaching a peak of 226.1 billion in 2014, completely lost their growth potential and dropped to the bottom of 89.6 billion in 2017. Since then, Tianjin has resumed a certain growth, driven by the motorcycle manufacturing industry, and will return to 152.3 billion in 2022. Note that in 2022, Tianjin’s motorcycle production reached a peak of 20.19 million units, accounting for 41% of the country’s total motorcycle production. However, it is impossible to expect the motorcycle manufacturing industry to support the operation of cities with a population of tens of millions in the long term. Motorcycles themselves are not very high-tech, and there are many competitors. The food delivery industry also has limits and cannot expand infinitely. Therefore, by 2023, the operating conditions of Tianjin’s industrial enterprises will turn downward, from 1 to 8 Tianjin’s motorcycle output in March was 10.07 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 12.7%. At the same time, Tianjin’s industrial enterprise profits from January to August were 102.8 billion, a decrease of 5.5% from 108.8 billion in the same period last year. This means that Tianjin has once again returned to the old path of zero manufacturing.

If the industrial economy is not good, Tianjin will certainly not be able to retain its population. Unlike the Beijing government, which has always used a tough attitude to drive out low-end populations, the Tianjin government has been trying its best to attract population inflows. Tianjin is the first city among second-tier cities in the country to relax household registration restrictions, but it is of no use. In 2016, Tianjin’s population reached a peak of 14.43 million, and has since declined. In 2018, Tianjin’s population dropped to 13.83 million. The Tianjin government couldn’t stand it anymore, so it launched the so-called “War for Talents” and the “Haihe Talents” operation, introducing nearly 400,000 talents to alleviate the pressure of population outflow. However, in the context of Tianjin’s industrial clearing, such imported talents cannot actually find any work, so they are destined not to last long. Therefore, after 2021, Tianjin’s population will decline again, falling to 13.63 million in 2022.

Overview of changes in Tianjin’s resident population data since 2010 (author’s table)

The rate of population decline in Tianjin is exactly the same as that in Northeast China, where the economy has fallen into absolute depression. There is no industry and no population, and of course it is impossible to maintain the scale of investment. Therefore, according to data from the Tianjin Municipal Bureau of Statistics, Tianjin’s fixed asset investment will shrink by 9.9% year-on-year in 2022, of which manufacturing investment will shrink by 1.2% and real estate investment will shrink by 23.2%. This can also be understood as a factor in COVID-19 control.

Fixed asset investment in Tianjin in 2022 (Source: Tianjin Bureau of Statistics)

This year, there was a “bang” sound. From January to September, Tianjin’s fixed asset investment shrank by a full 20.8%, of which manufacturing investment shrank by 4.2%, infrastructure investment shrank by 12.6%, and real estate investment shrank by 48.5%. Among all provincial administrative regions in the country, Tianjin ranks last in terms of investment shrinkage this year, and other provinces and cities simply cannot match it. Even provinces like Guangxi, which have been completely flat and in ruins, had fixed investment from January to September this year. The shrinkage was only 13.2%, and it could only be ranked second from the bottom. The overall contraction of fixed investment in the country in the first three quarters was only 11.0%. Regarding the situation in Tianjin, we can only summarize it this way: industry has given up on Tianjin, population has given up on Tianjin, and capital has also given up on Tianjin.

Fixed asset investment in Tianjin from January to September 2023 (Source: Tianjin Bureau of Statistics)

The following data is logical. Tianjin, which has nothing, of course can no longer have the ability to earn foreign exchange through exports. Therefore, according to data from Tianjin Customs, Tianjin’s exports in the first three quarters of this year were US$39.2 billion, a decrease of 10.2% from US$43.7 billion in the same period last year, while the average decline in national exports in the first three quarters was 6.6%. In terms of shrinking exports, Tianjin lags far behind the rest of the country. The situation has evolved to this point, and the Tianjin government has undoubtedly been forced to a dead end. No matter how reluctant it is, it can only take the path of frugality. Therefore, starting in 2020, Tianjin City began to launch a plan for public institutions, generally reducing salaries by 20%. By 2022, the wave of salary cuts has spread to all grassroots administrative units except municipal agencies. By July this year, Tianjin’s once envied “supplementary provident fund” system began to face challenges. The government issued new provident fund calculation rules, clearly stipulating the upper limit of provident fund income for administrative and public institution personnel. I believe that soon, the supplementary provident fund for administrative institutions, which can easily cost 8,000 to 9,000 yuan per capita, will be cancelled. This is an objective law, and the Tianjin government simply cannot resist it.

As an acropolis to protect the capital, Tianjin Guard was originally just a huge military city. In its long historical evolution, it has never developed any industrial spirit. Instead, a unique gangster culture has been derived from the soldiers on the street: the gangsters ask you to collect protection money, but you refuse to give it. He stabbed himself in the thigh with a knife and asked you if you were afraid.

Under this self-destructive gangster culture, no matter how far Tianjin’s economy collapses, the people of Tianjin actually don’t care – it’s just one death, what’s the big deal…

Editor in charge: Yu Zhen

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