After a number of international financial institutions raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth in 2023, recentlyGoldman SachsUBS and other institutions have successively released their macroeconomic outlook for 2024, optimistic about China’s economic development prospects, and increased their holdings of A shares.
Optimistic about China’s economic prospects
November 13,Goldman SachsRelease of China’s macroeconomic outlook and stocks in 2024marketing strategyReport.Goldman SachsChief China equity strategist Liu Jinjin predicts,MSCI ChinaExponential sumCSI 300The index will rise by 12% and 16% respectively in 2024, maintaining an overweight position on A shares.
internationalityMonetary FundThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) released news on November 7, raising China’s economic growth forecast for this year and next to 5.4% and 4.6% respectively, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the October forecast.
Shine Hui, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, said that China’s actual growth rate is expected to be 2024.GDPThe growth rate will reach 4.8%, which is higher than the IMF’s forecast.
The reason is that Shine explained to reporters that next year’s 4.8% growth rate means stable consumption prospects, the government’s further increase in financial support, and a greater proportion of investment in real estate, infrastructure, manufacturing and other fields.
Wang Tao, head of Asia economic research and chief China economist at UBS, commented on “securitiesA reporter from the Daily said that China’s real GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.4% in 2024. In 2024, the consumption and service industries will continue to recover.
Wang Tao further said that with the further recovery of the service industry, consumption will continue to be normalized in 2024, and residents’ real income is expected to increase by about 5%.
A-share valuations are more attractive
The valuation of China’s stock market is at a low level, which is very attractive to overseas investors.FidelityMarty Dropkin, head of international Asia-Pacific stock investment, recently stated that he is very optimistic about the Chinese market. From a long-term investment perspective, given the current valuation level, the attitude towards China’s capital market is becoming increasingly optimistic, especially some individual stock targets and industry opportunities.
“Due to low sensitivity to geopolitical and liquidity factors, stock risk premiums have further increased, and A-shares are still attractive. Sectors such as new infrastructure, renewable energy, electric vehicle supply chains, and mass market consumption are worthy of allocation.” Liu Jinjin express.
In Liu Jinjin’s view, the current valuation of A-shares is at a low level. As overseas investors’ sentiment gradually recovers next year and risk appetite normalizes, there is still much room for improvement in their positions in A-shares.
Liu Jinjin also said that in 2024, Goldman Sachs maintains its view of overweighting China’s TMT and mass consumption sectors, and will increase its investment in stocks.food and drinkand hardware and other industries with better profit growth.
“Whether it is at the investor level or the market level, the Chinese market is becoming more mature, and we are optimistic about the development trend of China’s economy and industry.”FidelityfundMeng Jiao, director of investment strategy, said that China is the world’s second largest economy, accounting for 18% of the world’s GDP, but A-shares account for less than 3% in various global asset allocation indexes, which shows that China’s capital market still has a lot of potential in the future. There is a lot of room for development. China continues to expand the breadth and depth of its financial market reform and opening up, which will attract more long-term funds to actively participate in the Chinese market.
(Source of article: Securities Daily)
Source of article: Securities Daily
Author of the article: Xie Ruolin
Original title: Goldman Sachs and other foreign institutions have expressed their optimism about “Chinese assets” and will maintain an overweight position on A-shares in 2024.
Solemnly declare:Oriental Fortune publishes this content to disseminate more information. It has nothing to do with the position of this site and does not constitute investment advice. Operate accordingly at your own risk.