Gita Gopinath, First Vice President of the IMF, said that compared with the forecasts in the “World Economic Outlook” released by the IMF in October, China’s actual GDP forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have been raised by 0.4 percentage points. The reasons were stronger-than-expected growth in the third quarter and a series of recently released policies.
“China’s economy is expected to achieve the government’s 2023 growth target, reflecting the strong recovery after the COVID-19 epidemic. China’s real GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2023.” On November 7, Gita Gopinath, First Vice President of the IMF, said at the 2023 China Article 4 consultation delegation stated at the end of their visit.
From October 26 to November 7, the head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) delegation to China, Sonali Jain-Chandra, led a team to visit China and held discussions with the Chinese side on the 2023 Article 4 Consultation (Annual Assessment of China’s Economy) .
IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath participated in policy discussions and issued a statement at the end of the visit.
Gopinath said that China’s economy is expected to achieve the Chinese government’s 2023 growth target, reflecting the strong recovery after the new crown epidemic.China’s real GDP is expected to grow by 5.4% in 2023.Compared with the forecasts in the World Economic Outlook released by the IMF in October, China’s actual GDP forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have been raised by 0.4 percentage points due to stronger-than-expected growth performance in the third quarter and the recent release of a series of policies. As the output gap continues to narrow, core inflation is expected to rise to 2.1% by the end of 2024.
Gopinath stressed that more action is needed to support the housing market in order to speed up recovery and reduce the economic costs of the transition. A comprehensive package of policy measures should include: accelerating the exit of unsustainable real estate developers; removing barriers to house price adjustment; providing more government funds to promote housing completion; and helping sustainable developers repair their balance sheets and adapt to scale. Shrinking market.
In addition, the central government should carry out coordinated fiscal framework reforms and balance sheet restructuring to address local government debt pressures, including bridging local government fiscal gaps and controlling debt flows, as well as formulating a comprehensive restructuring strategy to reduce the debt of local government financing platforms level.
When talking about whether China will experience deflation in the near future, Gopinath said, “We believe that deflation will not occur in China, and China’s current inflation is still within a reasonable range.“
Author of this article: Wang Huirong, source: The Paper, original title: “IMF: Increases China’s economic growth forecast this year to 5.4%, China will not experience deflation”
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