China’s economy has made steady progress in the first quarter and can achieve the expected target for the whole year with a “strength jump”

[Summary of views]

●When observing the performance of China’s economy, we must look at both the total volume and structure, as well as trends and potential.

●Looking at China’s economic development throughout the year, I believe that through continued policy efforts, this year’s economic growth target of around 5% is a goal that can be achieved in one “jump”.

●my country’s economic development not only pursues “gold content” but also “green content”.

●The rapid growth of industrial year-on-year data has played an important supporting role in the steady operation and steady improvement of GDP.

In 2024, China’s first quarterly economic report will get off to a good start. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 16th showed that according to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter was 29,629.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3% at constant prices. How do you view China’s economic “report card” in the first quarter? How to continue development in the second quarter and where does development confidence come from?

“When observing the operation of China’s economy, we must look at both the total volume and structure, as well as trends and potential. Judging from the characteristics of the current economic operation, while the overall economic volume remains stable, the structure is also constantly optimized, and consumption Demand and investment demand are also in the process of steady recovery. “Recently, Wei Qijia, director and researcher of the Industrial Economic Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the National Information Center, said during a guest appearance on “China Economic Micro-Observation·Expert Talk” that China’s economic growth in the first quarter can be used. One keyword to summarize: progress while maintaining stability, which well summarizes the main characteristics of China’s economic performance in the first quarter.

Economic growth targets are key to boosting confidence. Wei Qijia said that looking forward to China’s economic development throughout the year, he believes that through continued policy efforts, this year’s economic growth target of around 5% is a goal that can be achieved with “a hard jump”.

“The key depends on the trend and potential of China’s economy”

The growth of high-tech manufacturing industry is accelerating and market sales are growing steadily… Analyzing the first quarter economic data, China’s economic growth rate is generally higher than market expectations. China, which practices high-quality development, has delivered a dazzling “first quarter report”.

Wei Qijia said that from the perspective of “stability”, it is not easy for China, as a very large economy, to achieve a GDP growth rate of 5.3% year-on-year on the basis of rising uncertainty in the external environment and a relatively high base last year. It is also an important manifestation of the steady operation of our country’s economy.

From the perspective of “progress”, investment in some high-tech manufacturing and high-tech service industries has maintained double-digit growth, and product output has also maintained a high year-on-year growth rate, reflecting the characteristics of structural optimization and improved quality and efficiency.

“The key depends on the trend and potential of China’s economy.” Wei Qijia said, for example, from the popularity of the “holiday economy”, it can be seen that the current demand in the consumer sector is showing a steady and moderate rebound. With the introduction of various policies, this trend is expected to continue this year, and micro entities will further feel the warmth after the economy stabilizes.

Wei Qijia said that from a policy perspective, the policy guarantee is strong and the reserves are sufficient. Take the large-scale equipment upgrading and trade-in policy for consumer goods as an example. This policy is not limited to the trade-in of consumer goods, but aims to achieve a virtuous cycle of consumption and investment through the introduction of systematic policies.

“Ultimately, it will drive the growth of demand for consumer goods, and also promote companies to carry out technological transformation, optimize production processes, and produce better quality products.” Wei Qijia further analyzed that, in general, this policy can form a positive interaction between consumption and investment, and also It will lay a good foundation for creating new economic growth points.

“The pursuit of both ‘gold content’ and ‘green content'”

A closer look at the “report card” of China’s economy in the first quarter shows that energy consumption per unit of GDP fell by 0.1% year-on-year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, national fixed asset investment (excluding farmers) increased by 4.5% year-on-year, semiconductors, 3D Printing also maintained high double-digit growth. What information does this data convey? What new signals were released?

“Behind each set of data, there is profound logic and practical support for action.” Wei Qijia said that as the world’s second largest economy, while China’s economy remains stable, there are still many things to note, including There are two aspects that stand out.

First, energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped year-on-year in the first quarter. Behind this slight decline is the country’s continued efforts to promote the green transformation of the industry. It can be said that my country’s economic development not only pursues “gold content”, but also pursues “green content”.

The second is the growth of product output and investment-related indicators in high-tech manufacturing. This is the result of my country’s long-term promotion of the development of the real economy and its emphasis on the transformation and upgrading of the real economy. In particular, our country is promoting the upgrading and transformation of traditional industries, increasing investment in technological transformation, and promoting the quality and expansion of strategic emerging industries.

“Focus on both short-term growth and mid- and long-term planning.”

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first quarter, the added value of the secondary industry was 10,984.6 billion yuan, an increase of 6.0%, which played a driving role in economic growth. Among them, the added value of the national industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year. Divided into three categories, the added value of the mining industry increased by 1.6% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry increased by 6.7% year-on-year, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry increased by 6.9% year-on-year. The added value of high-tech manufacturing increased by 7.5% year-on-year, 2.6 percentage points faster than the fourth quarter of last year.

“The rapid growth of industrial year-on-year data has played an important supporting role in the stable operation and steady improvement of GDP.” Wei Qijia said that the real economy, especially the industrial category, is an important supporting force for the stable operation of the national economy, and relevant policies are also It plays an important role in promoting industrial transformation and upgrading and high-quality development.

Wei Qijia further said that from the perspective of the industrial sector, policies such as large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in focus on both short-term growth and mid- and long-term coordination, which have boosted the confidence of many industrial enterprises in their operations. Many companies are also taking advantage of favorable policies to arrange related production in advance, which will play a strong role in promoting the growth of industrial added value.

“From the perspective of economic cycle, consumption and investment in the service industry have maintained a good growth trend, which shows that consumer demand is recovering steadily.” Wei Qijia believes that the steady growth of the service industry will also promote the increase in product demand. And further promote industrial development and achieve positive interaction between industries.

Wei Qijia also suggested that in the future, our country should adhere to quality first and efficiency first, seize favorable opportunities, and speed up the construction of a modern industrial system by focusing on enlarging the total scale, improving the industrial system, optimizing the industrial structure, and improving industrial resilience.