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Huang Lichen: The continued decline of the US dollar supports the rise of gold |


Yesterday, on Monday, we believed that gold’s rise was once again under strong pressure near $2,000, and we need to pay attention to the risk of a short-term correction. However, the expectation that the Federal Reserve will end its interest rate hike cycle has suppressed the trend of the US dollar and formed support for gold, which may limit the downside space. Therefore, it is recommended that everyone shake Looking at the thinking, the lower support focuses on the area from 1974 to 1972 US dollars. If it falls below 1970 US dollars, it may test the daily 10-day moving average of 1962 US dollars downwards. The upper pressure focuses on the 1985 to 1988 US dollars area.

Judging from the subsequent trend, gold continued to be under pressure, and after the opening of the U.S. market, it fell below $1,970, falling as low as $1,965, stabilizing near the daily 10-day moving average, and then rebounded upward, reaching resistance at $1,979. Gold was weak in the short term, but the downside was limited. It rebounded to recover all losses and maintain a volatile trend, which was basically in line with our expectations. At the opening of trading on Tuesday, gold continued its previous rebound trend, rising as high as $1,994. It encountered resistance near last week’s high and is currently trading at $1,992.

Wolfinance star analyst Huang Lichen believes that after continuous rebounds, gold has once again encountered resistance and retreated near the integer mark of US$2,000. However, supported by the weak US dollar, the short-term correction space of gold prices is limited, and investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may end the interest rate hike cycle. The expectations continue to suppress the trend of the US dollar, which in turn supports the stabilization and rebound of gold and continues to test upward.

In terms of news, the Federal Reserve continues to retain the possibility of raising interest rates after keeping interest rates unchanged. Some officials believe that the U.S. economy is strong and needs to continue to raise interest rates. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also said that the central bank is not confident in controlling inflation, but the market obviously does not buy it. Especially after the release of weak CPI and PPI data, investors increased their expectations for the Federal Reserve to end its interest rate hike cycle, which suppressed the trend of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar fell to a new low in more than two months, and U.S. bond yields (ten years) also hit a two-year high. monthly lows, thus supporting gold’s rise.

On the daily chart, gold bottomed out and rebounded, continuously breaking through the 5-day and 10-day moving averages, as well as the suppression of the middle track of the Bollinger Bands. Afterwards, although it encountered resistance and retreated, it quickly returned to the short-term moving average and the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, as shown below Support is strong. The 5-day and 10-day moving averages are golden crosses. The 5-day moving average crosses the middle track of the Bollinger Bands and forms a support near $1977. This is the low point of the day. The KDJ and RSI indicators are golden crosses upward. The MACD indicators are dead crosses, but the DEA line The downward trend slows down, and the DIFF line turns upward, forming a golden cross trend, indicating that the short-term direction is dominated by many parties.

Gold intraday reference: Affected by expectations that the Federal Reserve may end its interest rate hike cycle, the U.S. dollar continues to fall, providing support for gold. In terms of operation, it is recommended that the lower support focus on the 1977 to 1975 US dollars area. The gold price will stand firm here and treat it with a bullish bias. The upper pressure will focus on 1994 and 2000 US dollars.


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