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CPT Markets: Weak U.S. economic data intensifies dovish bets on the Fed! UK retail sales fall in October |


Today’s focus

On November 13 and November 17 last week, the US dollar fell in the Asian market, and other currencies generally rose; the price of gold fell but crude oil showed an upward trend. In terms of foreign exchange: the U.S. dollar index fell to 103.85; the EURUSD rose to 1.0908; the GBP/USD rose to 1.2460; the USD/JPY fell to 149.68; the USD/CAD fell to 1.3715; the Australian dollar rose to 0.6513. Precious metals: Gold fell to 1980.87 against the US dollar. Crude oil: Brent crude oil rose to 80.41.


The U.S. dollar index fluctuated and fell to around 103.85 last Friday. Due to the lack of improvement in U.S. economic data, the U.S. dollar fluctuated downwards and weakened.

Economic data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday showed that the number of initial jobless claims increased by 13,000 to 231,000 in the week of November 11, while market expectations were for an increase of 220,000. The labor market is cooling as rising interest rates dampen demand. Most economists attribute the increase to difficulties adjusting the data for seasonal fluctuations rather than substantive changes in the labor market. They expect the issue will be resolved next spring when the government revise its data. In addition, industrial production in October did not meet expectations, falling 0.3% and 0.6% month-on-month, in line with market expectations.

In terms of financial event data last Friday, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the annualized monthly rates of building permits and new housing starts in October both rose to 1.1% and 1.9% higher than expected, with the total numbers higher than expected to 1.487 million and 1.372 million units respectively, indicating the future of real estate. The market is active.

From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 103.80, 104.10; from the downward direction, the lower support is 103.40.


EUR/GBP consolidated around 0.8754 after closing slightly higher on Friday. Last week’s drop in UK inflation in October can be seen as a positive, but it doesn’t really help the pound as inflation remains well above target.

Ramsden, deputy governor of the Bank of England BOE, expressed some views on UK wage inflation when attending a meeting last Friday, pointing out that other wage data suggest that the peak of wage growth may be 7.0%, rather than the 8.0% in the official data series. In any case, Recent wage growth is inconsistent with the 2.0% inflation target. Weak supply capacity is a real characteristic of the British economy. Weak supply capacity is related to UK monetary policy.

In terms of financial event data last Friday, the British Bureau of Statistics announced that the annual retail sales rate in October fell sharply to -2.7% and -0.3% compared with expectations, and the core annual monthly rate fell to -2.4% and -0.1% year-on-year, reflecting Market demand for retail goods declined. In terms of inflation data, Eurostat, the European Union’s statistical office, announced that the euro zone’s adjusted CPI annual monthly rate in October was 2.9% and 0.1% as expected. The core adjusted annual monthly rate after excluding food and fuel was 5% and 0.2% year-on-year, showing that the euro Inflation pressure in the region remains at a fixed level.

From the upward direction, the upper pressure (upper resistance) is 0.8750, 0.8790; from the downward direction, the lower support is 0.8710.

CPT Markets risk warning and disclaimer: The content of the above article is for reference only and does not serve as future investment advice. The articles published by CPT Markets are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news.

U.S. Dollar Index (DXY):



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