Interpretation of CBOT positions: Brazil’s weather outlook improves and US beans fall back, paying attention to further progress in demand
Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures edged lower on Wednesday, retreating after rising to their highest levels since August as an improving weather outlook in Brazil boosted the supply outlook, outweighing demand from last month’s record U.S. soybean crush. boost.
CBOT corn futures, wheat futures were lower.
As of 10:00 Beijing time, the CBOT soybean continuous contract fell 0.16% to 1,382.8 cents/bushel, and the CBOT corn continuous contract was almost unchanged at 471 cents/bushel. CBOT wheat continuous contract fell 0.45% to 558 cents/bushel.
CBOT position changes
Trader estimates show that commodity funds increased speculative net long positions in soybean oil and increased speculative net short positions in corn, soybeans, wheat, and soybean meal on Wednesday (November 15). In the past 30 trading days, commodity funds have increased speculative net short positions in corn, soybean oil, and wheat, and increased speculative net long positions in soybean meal and soybeans.
The data in the table are traders’ estimates and are not final transaction data. Calculation method: The above net position data = open long contracts – open short contracts, that is, if the data is positive, it means “net long position”, if the data is negative, it corresponds to “net short position”, and 0 means open position. Long and open short positions are the same.
A heat wave in Brazil, the world’s top soybean exporter, has heightened concerns about dry soybean growing conditions in northern and central regions. However, analysts said rain forecast for next week could bring relief and shift attention back to the world’s plentiful supplies.
A boom in U.S. soybean sales to China also boosted Chicago soybeans. Market participants are awaiting further signs on agricultural trade.
An overview of the global export markets for grains, oilseeds and edible oils as of Wednesday’s close:
Jack Scoville, market analyst at Price Futures Group, said soybeans are taking a pause after their recent rally. But the market is still very concerned about weather conditions in South America. By no stretch of the imagination are these showers going to be the bane of drought. Once it proves that this is not a widespread heavy rain, the market may once again speculate on the Brazilian weather impact.
The impact of Brazilian weather outweighed support from data showing U.S. soybean processors crushed a record amount of soybeans in October, while soyoil stocks fell to their lowest level in nearly nine years at the end of the month.
Ole Houe, director of advisory services at Australian agricultural brokerage IKON Commodities, expects prices to fall in the coming weeks, with Brazilian output still rising after this year’s drought and Argentinian production rebounding.
Corn prices remain capped by last week’s USDA forecast of a record U.S. harvest.
The wheat market remains under pressure from competition for Black Sea supplies and Ukraine’s efforts to resume seaborne exports.