National Bureau of Statistics: Low prices will gradually ease and deflation will not occur – China News Service Video

National Bureau of Statistics: Low prices will gradually ease and deflation will not occur

The State Council Information Office held a press conference on November 15 to introduce the performance of the national economy in October 2023. Liu Aihua, spokesperson, chief economist and director of the National Economic Comprehensive Statistics Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at the meeting that the low price situation will gradually ease in the next stage and deflation will not occur.

Liu Aihua said that judging from the situation in October, consumer prices fell by 0.1% month-on-month and 0.2% year-on-year. There are three basic points that need to be emphasized regarding the current price situation and the price situation in the future period.

First, the structural characteristics of prices are obvious. The main reason for the decline in food prices is the expansion of food price declines. From a month-on-month perspective, food prices fell by 0.8% from a month-on-month increase of 0.3%. Compared with the average seasonal level of the past ten years, the decline was relatively large, affecting the month-on-month decrease in CPI by about 0.14 percentage points. From a year-on-year perspective, food prices fell by 4% year-on-year, and the decline expanded by 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, affecting the CPI to fall by approximately 0.75 percentage points. Among foods, pork prices have a greater impact. Pork prices fell by 30.1% year-on-year in October, a decline that expanded by 8.1 percentage points, affecting the CPI to fall by about 0.55 percentage points. The decline in food prices is mainly affected by factors such as fine weather in most parts of the country in October, relatively sufficient supply of agricultural products, and a drop in consumer demand after the holidays. It has obvious seasonal characteristics. Looking at non-food prices, the increase was relatively stable. Non-food prices increased by 0.7% that month, the same as last month.

Second, core prices are generally stable. In October, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.6% year-on-year and remained unchanged month-on-month. From January to October, consumer prices rose by 0.4% year-on-year, with core CPI rising by 0.7% year-on-year, the same increase as from January to September. Prices are generally relatively stable.

Third, the main factors affecting price levels tend to improve. Judging from the overall economic performance and changes in major indicators I just introduced, the overall economic performance continues to recover and improve. Judging from changes in demand, demand for goods and services continues to recover. In terms of monetary conditions, broad money has maintained rapid growth and market liquidity is generally reasonable and sufficient.

Liu Aihua emphasized that based on these factors, low prices will gradually ease in the next stage and deflation will not occur. (Produced by Li Jiayue and Fei Fan)

Editor in charge:[Luo Pan]