After the cross-month period, the Chinese peoplebankOpen market operations have shrunk.
Central Bank November 6announcementcalled, for maintenancebankThe liquidity of the system is reasonable and sufficient. On that day,interest rateAn 18 billion yuan seven-day reverse bidding process was launchedrepurchaseoperate. As 658 billion yuan of reverse repurchases expired that day, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 640 billion yuan from the open market that day, and the scale of net withdrawals in a single day hit a new high this year.
The expiration of large-scale reverse repurchase corresponds to large-scale investment in the early stage. In order to protect the stability of funds across the month, the central bank injected a large amount of liquidity through open market operations and other tools at the end of October. From October 30 to 31, the central bank conducted a total of 1.27 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations in the open market, and the open market reverse repurchase balance at the end of the month was 2.69 trillion yuan.
Entering November, the scale of the central bank’s open market operations gradually shrank. From November 1 to 6, the scale of the central bank’s open market operations was 391 billion yuan, 194 billion yuan, 43 billion yuan, and 18 billion yuan respectively.
China Everbright BankZhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Department of Financial Markets, spoke to ShanghaisecuritiesA reporter from the newspaper said that at the beginning of the month, the marketinterest rateThere has been a significant decline, market funds have become looser, and the central bank has flexibly operated to rationally recover excess short-term liquidity to stabilize funds and maintain market liquidity at a reasonable and sufficient level.
As cross-month factors subside, funding margins loosen. November 6,bankStore overnightpledgeThe repo rate DR001 fell by 4.22 basis points to 1.5806%; the weighted average of the 7-day repo rate DR007 rose to 1.7691%, but was still lower than the policy interest rate.
After the last trading day in October, interbankPledged repoAfter the “thrilling” interest rate trend, the trend of funds in November became the focus of the market.Analysts believe that the issuance of government bonds in November may still cause certain disruptions to funding, butcurrencyThe tone of neutral to lenient policy has not changed, and the overall financial situation is expected to be in a “tight balance” state.
Soochow Securitiesresearch reportIt said that as the funds raised from special refinancing bonds are gradually converted into fiscal expenditures, the funding situation is expected to become slightly looser, but because there are still special government bonds that need to be issued, the funding situation may still be in a “tight balance” state.
China Merchants SecuritiesIt is believed that the overall financial situation in November will be in a “tight balance” state. Structurally, short-end liquidity is expected to be stable but loose under the protection of the central bank, while long-end liquidity may be slightly tight under the expected influence, and the yield curve may further steepen.
according toCITIC SecuritiesThe Fixed Income Department estimates that the net financing scale of government bonds in November is expected to be around 1.11 trillion yuan. The supply pressure of government bonds has eased slightly from the 1.55 trillion yuan in October, but it is still at a high level for the year.Considering 1 trillion yuanadditional issuanceNational bonds will be publicly issued, and fiscal payment factors may still have a certain temporal impact on funding in November.
Market participants expect that monetary easing will be used in conjunction with fiscal easing. The Central Financial Work Conference pointed out that efforts should be made to create a good monetary and financial environment and effectively strengthen high-quality financial services for major strategies, key areas and weak links. We will always maintain the stability of monetary policy, pay more attention to cross-cyclical and counter-cyclical adjustments, and enrich the monetary policy toolbox.
CITIC SecuritiesThe chief economist Mingming said that after excluding seasonal factors, it is expected that monetary policy will still be necessary. At present, the central bank’s attitude towards protecting liquidity is still clear. It may continue to adopt the method of “peak cutting and valley filling” to maintain the smooth operation of funds. At the same time, there is a high probability of lowering the required reserve ratio or renewing the MLF in excess of the quota within the year.
“It is expected that the possibility of RRR cuts still exists, but the central bank has many tools to stabilize funding. Further comprehensive RRR cuts still need to be comprehensively considered based on the pace and trend of macroeconomic recovery, banks’ demand for long-term liquidity, etc.” Zhou Maohua said.
(Source of article: Shanghai Securities News)
Source of article: Shanghai Securities News
Original title: The scale of net withdrawals in a single day hit a new high this year, with strong expectations for monetary easing and fiscal easing in November.
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